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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Casaubon who wrote (21338)	7/28/1999 11:24:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

RE > small caps with low variability in the volume and fairly expectable returns Is there such a group of stocks?)<< Yes from time to time you can find them, but you need to time them as well. The thing is even the longer term investor is mostly in mutual funds, these fund compete to get good returns, most of them have turn over rates they tell investors to never think about, so for the most part there are very few REAL longer term investors, as the funds undo that. Every thing moved to growth stocks, the market became MO MO, and no matter that good companies with good value did exist no one bought them, if you don't get big enough to get in an index that funds try to track you can have stellar earnings and who cares. If the stock price don't move up what good is a low PE or good book value. So most of the small caps stay small and or get bought out. Which is just about the biggest hope for them. It wasn't always like this, but come all the INDEX funds and money going into them, well big market cap meant bigger market cap, so by hook or crook, lie and cook books and hope you don't get caught and get the stock price up, make secondary offers sell bonds to buy back stock do any thing and every thing to create mo mo, as your stock options depend on it. Why be honest it don't pay, just look at them do gooders, they are still not going anywhere. Big gets bigger..it's the way the system works. -------------- It's reduced me to a scalper, as someday for sure the music will stop, it may be a long time coming BUT no one really knows when a BIG crash will hit till we get right in the middle of it, and nothing works. I play long bets now days but only because I have learned few tricks on how to get short in a hurry if need be. Why well because I most always hedge my all long bets off selling calls , if they don't have calls to sell I don't buy em.. That mostly covers me for a 10% down draft and by then I'm short one way or another. ------------- But really who thinks long term now days ? Like I said someone in a fund maybe, but does the fund manager ? Chances are he don't. ----------------- Here is a LONG TERM play note how it's not going anywhere SSB, and it will tell you just how long term minded the market is. BTW this is an internet play on the DOT index.. with a collar that says you can only lose 10% but it's well sort of like a closed end fund, and they are out of style. biz.yahoo.com Can you picture an internet basket with only a max 10% loss built into it. It's Nav is pegged to the ^DOT , but like a CE it can sell at a discount or permium to the nav. Right now it's below it's issue price $10 which was when the DOT was 550.30.. there just are no takers in something that don't move. -------------- dot FV at this time is $10 + $ 10x ( 584.34 - 550.30) / 550.30 Or $10.6185 , yet it's selling at 9 15/16 you see ( it's not liquid ) but tell me liquid or not if we had any long term internut investors do you think they would let this sell at more than a 6.4% discount to it's Fair value. AS that's what it's doing. I'm not trying to sell this thingy just using it to show a point..it's not liquid nor is it a tracking stock, one may have to wait till May 30, 2006.to redeem it, but does any one really believe the internet will still be here in 2006 ? <G> There are a lot of CEFs selling at a discount today, mostly because they are not liquid. So for what you are talking of find a closed end fund at a discount maybe one that pays a dividend , and just settle down to the ho hum world of watching every thing else go up. Their day will come if your in no hurry. ------------------ Here's an interesting bond fund quote.yahoo.com now it don't look exciting at all does it, who wants just 9.76% per year intrest on a fund that drags behind the market that bad, but what if you let it DRIP..compound interest would have it paying for itself in 7.4 yrs..then add that to the principle so if you bought it back in jan 92, it's free right now and if you add that 7 3/8 to the chart you'll see it has just about done as good as the S&P..( if the CE goes open ) then you get the NAV price all at one time. CEs are about dead in the water right now, I was tracking a few but lost interest..if your a long termer..find a few with good long track records and very few dips that pays a dividend and let it drip. There are some people who won't buy anything else. They seem to live in a world of their own. Bond funds can take hit's and I don't like the pure junk bond type but all in all they do get first dubs if the market goes to hell, stock holders just get " well you should have known better " Royce Funds has a few. ------------ By the way thank you for the "dollar volume index" term, as that fits what I did picking the 11 and says it better than I did. They are just to give me the short term market sentiment, & in a way so I can see the votes are honest ones, and with people who use their money voting.<G> I did say parking lot, but really they could park just as easy in Money markets or even bonds so I don't see it as money fleeing to safty..hell Yahoo is in there , it just that there seems to be a gang that want to play where the action is. Jim