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To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (37954)	7/28/1999 10:18:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Respond to of 116984

Japan's June Industrial Output Rises 3%, Indicating Cutbacks May Be Over By Nathan Westby with reporting by Scott Stoddard and Ryo Hino Japan's Industrial Output Rises 3% in June on Month (Update1) (Adds quote in 4th paragraph. Updates market reaction in 7th and 7th paragraphs.) Tokyo, July 29 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese industrial output rose more than expected last month providing another sign that the economy is turning around. The dollar slipped after the report raised optimism for investment in Japan. Output at factories and mines rose 3.0 percent in June after declining 1 percent in May to a five-year low, the Ministry of International Trade and Industry said. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had forecast a 1.8 percent increase. Its the second sign this month that the economy may be turning around. The government earlier reported that the economy grew 7.9 percent at an annual pace in the January-March quarter, after five quarters of decline. ''This does suggest that there's a good chance the bottom has been hit,'' said Peter Morgan, senior economist at HSBC Securities. ''Things are starting to turn up now. Output for the quarter is still down 1 percent, but the indications for the third quarter are certainly pretty good.'' Production will probably rise 0.5 percent in July and gain 3.7 percent in August, according to the ministry's survey of manufacturers. The output figures pushed the dollar down against the yen. The U.S. currency fell as low as 115.46 yen from 115.90 yen just before the report. Japanese bonds plunged after the report raise the possibility the central bank may end its low interest-rate- policy. As prices fell, the yield on the benchmark 10-year bond rose 5 basis points to 1.750 percent, the highest since July 22. The gain in production was led by automakers, an important industry because it uses everything from steel to machine tools to manufacture cars and trucks. Manufacturers are feeling less pressure to slash production as government spending helps stop the economy's slide. April-June Despite June's rise, production fell 1 percent in the April-June quarter from the previous three months. Industrial production accounts for about a fifth of economic production in Japan. Production will probably be helped by recoveries budding throughout Asia and by efforts at manufacturers to reduce the amount of unsold goods they hold in warehouses. Demand from Asia, which buys about one-third of Japan's exports, has led to a recovery in exports. About 15 percent of industrial production is shipped overseas. That along won't be enough to lead manufacturers to boost production much further, they need to see more spending from Japanese consumers. Consumers are cautious about increasing spending as companies cut wages and jobs. Companies reduced inventories of manufactured goods to meet demand, rather than make big production increases. Inventories fell 0.3 percent in June, after falling 0.5 percent in May, and shipments increased 3.1 percent after rising 0.6 percent in May. The ministry released another set of figures for industrial production using a different formula for making seasonal adjustments, such as for the number of holidays. Those figures showed industrial production fell 1 percent in June from May, after a 3.9 percent gain in May. ©1999 Bloomberg L.P. All rights reserved. Terms of Service, Privacy Policy and Trademarks.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (37954)	7/28/1999 10:50:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Respond to of 116984

He also said the Fed doesn't target a particular unemployment rate, that rising oil prices are ''far less important'' to the economy than they were in decades past, and that there is no evidence foreigners are preparing to sell large amounts of U.S. securities. >>>> quote.bloomberg.com Now if there was evidence Greenspan would have raised interest rates by much more to defend dollar, right:) So we are waiting for the evidence? Who is selling dollar and why than? It ain't BoJ that is for sure..Overdone? we shall see, right? :)

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (37954)	7/29/1999 5:57:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Respond to of 116984

Gasoline Rises to 2-Year High Amid Surge in Summer Driving, Inventory Drop By Mark Pittman Gasoline Rises as Demand Soars; Crude Reaches $21 (Update5) (Updates with closing prices.) New York, July 29 (Bloomberg) -- Gasoline rose 3 percent to its highest price in almost two years amid near-record demand from vacationing motorists and the lowest inventories since December. ''People must be flocking to the beaches,'' said Chester Irvin, a trader at ABN Amro Inc. in New York. ''I drove down to Maryland last weekend and the traffic was unbelievable. A five- hour trip took me seven hours.'' Even U.S. pump prices at 21-month highs around $1.19 a gallon haven't kept Americans off the road. Gasoline inventories have fallen for seven straight weeks, leaving supplies at their lowest level since Dec. 4. Gasoline for August delivery rose 1.9 cents, or 3 percent, to 64.98 cents a gallon on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest closing price since August 1997. Gasoline futures have gained 17 percent this month. Strong demand is obvious on Long Beach Island on the New Jersey shore, a popular vacation spot between Philadelphia and New York City. ''This island is packed,'' said Brian Crappella, manager of Brin's Mobil in Ship Bottom, New Jersey, which sells regular gasoline for $1.16 a gallon. ''We're having a fantastic year.'' Crude oil rose to $21 a barrel for the first time since November 1997, pulled higher by the rally in gasoline. Prices retreated at the close. Crude oil for September delivery rose 43 cents, or 2.1 percent, to $20.97 a barrel on the Nymex after rising as high as $21.12 a barrel. In London, September Brent crude oil rose 46 cents, or 2.4 percent, to $19.80 a barrel on the International Petroleum Exchange. It was the highest closing price for Brent since November 1997. Second Strong Week An American Petroleum Institute report Tuesday indicated that gasoline had its second consecutive week of demand above 9 million barrels a day, close to the record of 9.60 million barrels a day set in March. Demand for gasoline is typically about 3.5 percent a day higher between the end of May and early September than it is the rest of the year. Gasoline prices are also being boosted by speculation that some refineries are having trouble producing fuel. Mobil Corp. said an explosion and fire early yesterday shut a hydrogen plant at its Los Angeles-area refinery, causing some units to operate below full capacity of 160,000 barrels a day. The company did not reveal how much the refinery was affected. Problems at California refineries earlier this year boosted local prices and attracted gasoline supplies from other parts of the country. In addition, Exxon Corp. reduced operating rates on two gasoline units at its 465,000-barrel-a-day refinery in Baytown, Texas, due to mechanical problems, Bridge News reported, citing people familiar with the situation. The Baytown gasoline units represent about 2 percent of the nation's gasoline supply. The company denied the reports. This Year's Rally Gasoline and crude oil prices have increased more than 70 percent this year on expectations that oil producers are reducing a supply glut that built up during the past two years. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries together with four other producers have promised to trim world output by 7 percent, or about 5 million barrels a day. U.S. gasoline inventories fell almost 2 percent last week, the API said, leaving supplies at 208.16 million barrels, 5 percent below a year ago. Crude oil inventories are 3 percent below levels last year. Since prices have risen back to $20 a barrel, traders started watching for signs that OPEC would lift output levels to raise much-needed revenue. The may have a long wait. Government officials from OPEC- member countries have pledged to keep the cuts in place until next March. Mexico, which is not an OPEC member but is participating in the cuts, and Venezuela, OPEC's No. 3 producer, meet today and tomorrow in New Orleans, and an OPEC subcommittee that monitors oil output gathers tomorrow in Vienna. Heating oil for September delivery rose 1.28 cents, or 2.5 percent, to 52.73 cents a gallon on the Nymex, the highest price since December 1997. Tomorrow is the last day of trading for Nymex gasoline and heating oil futures. ©1999 Bloomberg L.P. All rights reserved. Terms of Service, Privacy Policy and Trademarks