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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (7254)	7/28/1999 10:45:00 PM
From: Hank Stamper	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Justa wrote: " Bear Market I find it interesting to contemplate what a bear market would look like in this new economy. " Well I have been contemplating the effect of a bear market on the internuts. Why? I dunno, but I watch market commentary about every other morning. There is a steady stream of CEOs of those firm bragging how they beat the street's estimates of what they'd lose. The guy who runs thestreet.com was pleased as punch this morning that he only lost 6 mill this past quarter. I mean, why worry about losses when you can always sell more stock to fill the coffers. This is like some sort of Ponzi game. On Sunday, I heard Bob make reference to this market as in a topping process. When a bear appears, these companies' sources of finance will dry up completely because Mr. Market will no longer finance them (and the banks already think they stink). I believe countless many of the internuts will fold in a bear market. I think there may be a bloodbath. Riding IBM down 30% or 60% in a serious bear will be like heaven compared to riding down a company that goes out of business. Ciao, David Todtman

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (7254)	7/29/1999 10:38:00 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 15132

Semi Equipment Comment Semi equipment opened lower with the general market but are looking fairly strong currently. There are two immediate drivers here. Look at INTC and MU. INTC missed their number but give good guidance for the next two quarters. It should make a new high in the coming days IMO. Volume is high and as I write it is only down 1/4 with the Nasdaq down 50 plus. Free PCs are one factor. On the MU side (MU is up today), DRAM prices are up the past few weeks and MU is at a Robbie Stephens Conference talking up DRAM shortages, early school PC demand, a move to include more memory per machine and increased cap ex in the coming year. Whether or not MU's analysis is correct (DRAM market is volatile) is inconsequential as the perception in the market now is that it is correct. All this adds up to mo-mo looking at the large semi equips now especially at the end of the month here where the fat cats could be expected to make some reallocation of funds to this sector. AMAT has a history of running up prior to earnings in August. All of this thinking rests, of course, on the performance of the overall market which is not looking too good here.