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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Les H who wrote (21396)	7/29/1999 2:07:00 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

FORTUCAST FINANCIAL TIMER PRECISE TIMING AND MOVEMENT ANALYSIS BY BARRY ROSEN “Serving Futures Traders Since 1987” UPDATED JULY 28 FOR MARKETS OF JULY 29, 1999 STOCKS and SEPT. S & P e-MINIS MONTHLY CHART TREND: Higher to DOW 12658. DAILY CHART TREND: Lower. TODAY'S EXPECTED DIRECTION: Bottoming and higher. NEXT HOURLY CHART NEXT DAILY CHART NEXT WEEKLY CHART TURN: 7/29 L/H; 7/30 H/L TURN: 8/5 H TURN: 8/99 H SWING TRADING STRATEGY: Buy 1362.50 with a 1354 stop. Exit 1/2 position 1386. (07/29) DAY TRADER'S SUMMARY: Patterns suggest a fall toward the 1360-1362 region early on Thursday and then a rally toward the 1386.50 region. From there, we could have a deeper correction starting on Friday and going into Monday, but we expect that correction will stay above the 1350 region. We think we are going to be doing a congestive retracement and that means large spurts may not happen. There are a few friendly cycles that kick in on Monday that may increase optimism and create more of an upward spurt, but we will need to take out 1400 to get more slap-happy about the upside. Look for resistance at 1377, 1381.50 and 1384.50 and 1386.50 and support at 1360 and 1356. OVERALL (7/26): The S & P cash probably cannot fall beyond 1335, otherwise we will negate the chance for one more new high. The DOW is also at critical support at DOW 10836-10853. On Thursday, the DOW looks like it will have trouble getting through the 11060-11070 region, with support at 10920 likely to hold. We may be inclined to accumulate a light long position in the Sept. futures 1360-62 region, as worst case scenario would be a bounce into the August 3-5 time window to at least the 1395 region. There is still a chance of a new high but Greenspan's testimony reminds me too much of last July when we topped out so I am not holding my breath. The DOW may have the best chance of setting a divergent high toward the 11325 region if it holds 10800. BIGGER PICTURE (07/26): Have we put in a top? The DOW is still on schedule to complete its 412-point pullback to 10844-10856 and then still could muster one more new high to the 11325 region. At the moment, I am inclined to think that the chances of 12600 in August are very small, and we may be well starting a push lower here to at least DOW 9438, with additional support at DOW 8903 and then 8316. Cycles are particularly nasty in August. We will do additional research and see if there is a chance in the winter and spring of 2000 to go back and make new highs to DOW 12568. Should we break much below 10800, I suspect we will turn more bearish, but it will take a close below 10400 to negate a slight new high here. Cycles look messy in August, and after August 5-6, I would not like to be long this market. FUND PERSPECTIVE: (7/25) The stock market is very close to issuing a weekly chart sell signal, but from a pattern perspective it still looks like we need two more new highs on the DOW. We will remain long funds until at least August 3-5 but suspect the chances of DOW 12680 come later--maybe after a 25-30% correction. With very nasty cycles in August, I suspect it will be important to hedge aggressively and protect yourself until at least November and possibly longer. There is a chance that fears of Y2K in Europe may lead to a strong seasonal rally in November and December, as foreign money pours into the US. We probably will dump long funds into August 5-6, especially if we close below DOW 10800. At the moment we are inclined to favor shorts into November, and it is unclear at this point whether we will go back in on the long side. We do see a major correction coming and probably lasting at least a few years. But from a pattern perspective, if the Nov. correction is followed by a divergent high in early 2000 to DOW 12568, we would feel that monthly and year chart patterns would be more complete. Still, one has to be short from August to November and then we will see what develops. OEX NOTES: (07/29) Stand aside. Wait until August 5-6 to consider any put options. SEPT. T-BONDS WEEKLY CHART TREND: Higher to 119-120 into August. DAILY CHART TREND: Lower. TODAY'S EXPECTED DIRECTION: Lower and then higher. NEXT HOURLY CHART NEXT DAILY CHART NEXT WEEKLY CHART TURN: 7/29 H TURN: 8/2 L TURN: 8/99 H DAY TRADING STRATEGY: Buy 115.24 with a 115.15 stop. Exit 116.15 oco market on close Thursday. (07/29) Bonds continue to act like they will do short-covering into the open of Friday and then fall quickly to the 114.16 region into Monday. Rallies will probably stall at 116.08 or max. 116.16. We will probably get short from the open of Friday and hold into Monday. Resistance is at 116.00 and 116.05 and 116.12. BIGGER PICTURE: (7/26) The correction the week of July 19 looked more like a typical panicky "b" wave so I still think there is a chance of a rally to the 119.21-120.00 region into early August. It will be hard to hold longs after the first week of August, and it may be hard to even get long in a major way again as daily stochastics have crossed to the downside. It will take a close above 116.24 to re-issue a buy signal again. If the market just rallies weekly over the next two weeks, then I suspect we could be quickly on our way down to the 111 or 104 region. FOREIGN CURRENCY NOTES (07/29) The Dollar technically is looking more like it will make a new low into late Thursday. The Dollar has support at 9962 and 9889 and then should rally starting on Friday. SEPT. DEUTSCHEMARK DAILY CHART TREND: Higher. TODAY'S EXPECTED DIRECTION: Higher. NEXT HOURLY CHART NEXT DAILY CHART NEXT WEEKLY CHART TURN: 7/29 H TURN: 7/29 H TURN: 11/99 L SHORT-TERM POSITION STRATEGY: Hold longs with a 5429 stop. Exit 5501. (07/29) Minimum upside pattern completion is at 5505, with higher targets of 5519 or 556 possible. We have a high on Thursday and then lower prices on Friday, and we still could continue higher 3-4 days next week into Thursday, August 5. Given our great profits and steep resistance here, we probably will exit if we hit our target. OVERALL: The DM may still have one more chance of 5150 but it continues to act like it is putting in a weekly chart bottom. We will continue to accumulate into early August when the next cycle low is due. AUG. GOLD WEEKLY CHART TREND: Lower to 245. DAILY CHART TREND: Lower. TODAY'S EXPECTED DIRECTION: Sideways to higher. NEXT HOURLY CHART NEXT DAILY CHART NEXT WEEKLY CHART TURN: 7/29 L; 7/30 H TURN: 8/16 L TURN: 8/99 L; 11/99 H SWING TRADING STRATEGY: Exit shorts 250.70. SHORT-TERM POSITION TRADING STRATEGY: Buy 245.70 and 246.10 with a 242 stop. (07/29) Gold may be inverting cycles with the crude and so we will assume that we could hold up into late Friday. Overall, we are still bearish, looking for at least 250.60 and probably the 242-245 region. BIGGER PICTURE: With 6 cycle lows dominating the first two weeks of August and seasonals down into then, we will have to be patient here. If gold goes much above the 277 region, then probably an early cycle low is in. LONGER-TERM (5/17): Weekly chart patterns suggest a low in the 245-249 region and then a $72.00 bounce. We expect that gold will bottom and base over the next few months and then take-off with crude into Nov. 1999. SEPT. CRUDE DAILY CHART TREND: Topping. TODAY'S EXPECTED DIRECTION: Higher. NEXT HOURLY CHART NEXT DAILY CHART NEXT WEEKLY CHART TURN: 7/30 H TURN: 7/30 H TURN: 8/99 L SWING TRADING STRATEGY: Cover shorts at 2051. Buy 2051 mit with a 2027 stop. (07/29) We have been badly misjudging crude the last few days and it appears that now it still wants to go to the 2150 region and certainly the 2125 region. Gas has the stronger cycles and is pulling it up. Reverse if you can, keeping stops tight and trailing and bail. LONGER-TERM: (7/19) Our minimum 4th wave corrective target on the weekly is now 1775, and if we accelerate through 2200, we could go to 2566 first. That seems unlikely so we will be patient about new position trade longs. Overall, we are still looking for higher prices above the 2600 region into November, with long-term cycles very bullish into June 2000. STATEMENT OF DISCLAIMER BARRY ROSEN HAS LITTLE OR NO EXPERIENCE IN TRADING ACTUAL ACCOUNTS FOR HIMSELF OR FOR HIS CUSTOMERS. BECAUSE THERE ARE NO ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS TO COMPARE TO THE HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS, CUSTOMERS SHOULD BE PARTICULARLY WARY OF PLACING UNDUE RELIANCE