another view
New Multimedia Applications Will Push Residential Broadband Internet Access To Over 31 Million Homes Within 5 Years, Says New Report From Communications Industry Researchers
CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va., July 30 /PRNewswire/ -- With even the most humble Web sites these days sporting drawings, banners and interactive graphics, and with new Web development tools promising more multimedia in the future, there is expected to be a major rush by consumers to sign up for the broadband access services offered by telephone companies and cable companies, according to Beyond T1/E1 1999-2000, North American Residential Broadband Access Market Opportunities, a new report from Communications Industry Researchers, Inc., (CIR) a market research firm based here.
Cable Modems and xDSL to Dominate Market
The new report claims that households which have signed up for Internet access at speeds near or above 1.5 Mbps will grow from approximately 1.6 million at the present time to 31.7 million by 2003. Multimedia is expected to spur this growth because where, just a few years ago, the average file transfer from the Web was about 4 KB, today it is 15 times that amount, rendering traditional dial up service increasingly inadequate. Beyond T1/E1 1999-2000, North American Residential Broadband Access Market Opportunities, notes that the multimedia trend is likely to accelerate as multimedia-on-the- Web becomes better in quality and Web-based entertainment increasingly competes with television entertainment. The report envisions such developments as on-line fashion shows with interactivity and e-commerce capabilities, and on-line multimedia trade shows that would enable teleworkers to remain in their homes while learning about the latest developments of their field.
Such developments will clearly require higher data rates to the home to make them effective. In Beyond T1/E1 1999-2000, North American Residential Broadband Access Market Opportunities. CIR examines the prospects for xDSL, cable modems, broadband wireless and satellite -- the main technologies that will be able to provide these higher data rates to the residential environment.
CIR believes that, while some of the telcos continue to announce unrealistically optimistic plans for xDSL, this technology should at last start to come into its own in the year 2000. This is because the new G.Lite standards -- which are backed by such giants as Intel, Microsoft, Compaq, Cisco, Ericsson, Lucent, Nortel and Siemens -- provides an entry level version of xDSL, while emerging VDSL technology provides a migration strategy to the very high speeds that will be required by consumers in the not-too-distant future. CIR projects that the entire market for xDSL products and services will be worth approximately $10.4 billion by 2003, compared with $252 million in 1999.
Beyond T1/E1 1999-2000, North American Residential Broadband Access Market Opportunities also claims that the standardization of cable modems led by CableLabs, should help make cable modems a familiar domestic appliance within a few years. As a result CIR projects that the market for cable modem products and services will be worth approximately $ 8.6 billion by 2003, compared with $860 million in 1999, with most of the cable modems offering two-way service. For some years, CIR expects cable modems and xDSL to account for the bulk of broadband residential access. However, CIR sees some hope for broadband access over satellite and wireless infrastructures.
Beyond T1/E1 1999-2000, North American Residential Broadband Access Market Opportunities says that two-way broadband satellites still lie some way off in the future as residential access platforms, but the low infrastructure cost coupled with the ability to rapidly deploy this infrastructure could make wireless technology the obvious choice for the many users who will not have cable modems or xDSL available to them for many years. MCI WorldCom's acquisition of CAI Wireless and Sprint's acquisition of American Telecasting and Peoples Choice TV has vindicated MMDS as a residential access medium, according to the new CIR report. And although most LMDS providers are currently targeting larger businesses, they may ultimately refocus on residential access.
The Future of Broadband Access at Home
Beyond T1/E1 1999-2000, North American Residential Broadband Access Market Opportunities provides a full assessment of the new revenue potential from broadband access by the consumer market. It includes profiles of all the major equipment vendors and service providers active in this market along with a forecast of ADSL, G.Lite, SDSL, VDSL, one- and two-way cable modems, broadband wireless and broadband satellite markets for the years 1998 through 2003. This new CIR report is part of a two-volume study -- the second volume, which covers broadband access in business environments, is expected to be available in November 1999. Both volumes are expected to become required reading for vendors, leading-edge service providers and the financial community.
The Table of Contents and Executive Summary for Beyond T1/E1 1999-2000, North American Residential Broadband Access Market Opportunities are available at CIR's Web site (http://www.cir-inc.com). The report is priced at $3,000. For those who purchase both volumes of Beyond T1/E1 1999-2000, the price is $4,995 for the set. CIR reports are also available in PDF or Microsoft Word format at an additional charge. Further details of this and other CIR studies can be obtained from Robert Nolan at 617-923-7611 or e-mail to: rob@cir-inc.com.
Based in Charlottesville, Virginia, Communications Industry Researchers, Inc. was founded in 1979. The company publishes market studies and carries out demanding custom market research assignments on the commercial aspects of new communications technologies. CIR specializes in the areas of broadband access, voice/data consolidation and core networking. It provides objective expertise for the vendor, service provider and user communities that is client focused but not client directed.
SOURCE Communications Industry Researchers, Inc.
CO: Communications Industry Researchers, Inc. |
