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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LLCF who wrote (321)	7/29/1999 4:56:00 PM
From: aknahow	Respond to of 52153

There are wildcats and then there are wildcats. A wildcat offshore Texas is one thing and in the North Sea another and in a totally virgin area another. A commonly used figure is one in 20. Development wells are about 90 to 95% successful. Stepout wells about 75%. I would say that the statistics cited are just as suspect as those used in the drug/biotech industry. If anything they are less reliable due to the fact that all wildcats are not equal but all drug trials are a matter of public record as are failures. Aware that Peter's question was rhetorical, just that the oil accounting issues are related and I find the issue interesting.

To: LLCF who wrote (321)	7/29/1999 5:37:00 PM
From: LLCF	Respond to of 52153

Here's a sheet with some of the new data: Comp # Shrs Price Mkt.Cap Cash $/shr TV Tv/Shr $/Val Ann Exp Revs Burn Sales Sls/Exp GZSP* 15.8 6.00 $95 $180 11.39 ($85) ($5.39) 190% 0.0 0.0 0 100 SNAP* 10.7 6.50 $70 $50 4.67 $20 $1.83 72% 19.0 9.0 20% 2 NBIX 18.8 4.25 $80 $56 2.98 $24 $1.27 70% 28.5 16.0 22% 0 HYSQ* 13.0 4.0 $52 $33 2.50 $20 $1.50 63% 20.0 4.0 49% 0 AXPH* 30.3 4.00 $121 $56 1.85 $65 $2.15 46% 78.6 47.4 56% 0 NPSP 12.5 7.00 $87 $40 3.20 $47 $3.80 46% 23.4 3.6 50% 0 CTII 18.4 1.25 $23 $10 0.54 $13 $0.71 43% 22.3 8.8 135% 0 REGN 31.00 8.00 $248 $100 3.23 $148 $4.77 40% 53.8 45.2 9% 15 28% BONZ* 13.5 5.0 $68 $27 2.00 $41 $3.00 40% 32.0 40.0 -30% 40 GELX* 16.8 14.00 $235 $90 5.36 $145 $8.64 38% 38.0 14.0 27% 4 SIBI 9.5 5.00 $48 $18 1.89 $30 $3.11 38% 25.5 11.0 81% 3 12% VRTX* 25.3 23.00 $583 $205 8.09 $378 $14.91 35% 80.0 48.0 16% 17 21% GLFD 19.6 17.00 $332 $116 5.93 $216 $11.07 35% 50.3 12.5 33% 6 12% BTRN 8.6 5.50 $47 $16 1.87 $31 $3.63 34% 17.2 8.0 58% 0 0% ARQL* 12.50 6.75 $84 29 2.28 $56 $4.47 34% 32.0 35.0 -11% PDLI 18.6 26.00 $483 $140 7.53 $343 $18.47 29% 40.0 30.0 7% 15 38% PGNS* 16.3 14.00 $228 $65 3.99 $163 $10.01 28% 62.6 61.1 2% 50 ALKS 24.5 25.00 $613 $171 6.98 $442 $18.02 28% 45.9 40.0 3% 0 CLTR 17.3 25.00 $432 $116 6.71 $316 $18.29 27% 40.0 34.0 5% 0 GLGC 19.7 4.5 $89 $22 1.12 $67 $3.38 25% 33.0 12.0 95% 12 VLTS 19.6 6.00 $118 $29 1.48 $89 $4.52 25% 18.7 8.1 37% 0 CHIR 185 23.00 $4,255 $1,000 5.41 $3,255 $17.59 24% 600.0 662.0 -6% 662 110% OSIP 21.4 4.75 $102 $22 1.04 $79 $3.71 22% 28.0 19.5 38% 0 AVIR 15.7 27 $424 $79 5.03 $345 $21.97 19% 56.6 1.0 70% 0 PCOP 20.2 11 $223 $40 1.98 $183 $9.02 18% 105.7 92.2 34% 62 59% ABGX 14.9 22 $328 $57 3.83 $271 $18.17 17% 24.0 5.0 33% 0 ABSC 17 8 $136 $23.5 1.38 $113 $6.62 17% 47 26.5 87% 0% SEPR 32.8 76 $2,493 $430 13.11 $2,063 $62.89 17% 70 14 13% 25 36% LGND 35.0 9 $315 $53 1.51 $262 $7.49 17% 87.0 25.0 117% 20 23% INCY 27.9 25 $698 $100 3.58 $598 $21.42 14% 180.0 170.0 10% 170 94% LKST 11.9 16 $190 $27 2.23 $164 $13.77 14% 23.8 12.0 45% 0 PCYC 12.3 27 $332 $46 3.74 $286 $23.26 14% 17.0 0.0 37% 0 TTP 13.1 5 $66 $9 0.69 $57 $4.31 14% 11.5 0.0 128% 0 GLIA* 10.1 19 $192 $26 2.57 $166 $16.43 14% 31.0 36.0 -19% 36 116% MOGN 14.6 10.5 $153 $18 1.23 $135 $9.27 12% 17.0 20.0 -17% 20 118% CGPI 8.6 10 $86 $10 1.17 $76 $8.83 12% 16.0 3.0 130% 0 CEPH 28.7 19 $546 $60 2.09 $486 $16.91 11% 74.6 22.0 88% 22 29% MLNM 34.2 55 $1,882 $202 5.90 $1,680 $49.10 11% 139.0 133.7 3% 100 72% CORR 24.4 20 $488 $42 1.72 $446 $18.28 9% 73.2 41.9 75% 33 45% ONXX 11.4 9.0 $103 $7 0.61 $96 $8.39 7% 30.6 9.3 305% 0 CELG 16.4 16.0 $263 $13 0.79 $250 $15.21 5% 28.0 3.8 186% 0 PARS 37.0 1.5 $56 $2 0.06 $53 $1.44 4% 6.1 1.5 200% 3.5 57% SUPG 20.4 17.5 $357 $13 0.62 $344 $16.88 4% 19.5 3.0 130% 0 GZMO** 12.6 3.0 $38 $1 0.08 $37 $2.92 3% 20.0 4.0 1600% 0 ITRC OUCH! All numbers in Millions ALKS 9 month data,SIBI lawsuit not included,LGND warrants not included. Sales is MY estimates for '99…. Feel free to "chip in" Please! Sls/Exp is my lame attempt to compare "sustainable" revenues to expenses,ie. 100% would supposedly be sustainable 0 Burn. Burn is % of current cash expected to be burned in 12 months. "TV" is technology value * means data is latest quarterly, otherwise data is bad! ** Don't worry about GZMO's burn… they have a 30mill line of credit from daddy! forgot who wanted INCR… but OUCH!