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To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (70679)	7/29/1999 5:33:00 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 164684

I am betting we are close to completing the correction. Maybe another 200 DOW points. I agree with you. I am unsure whether this is the Sept/Oct correction moved up a month or just an interim correction though. Net stocks have a different problem and that is all these junk IPOs though. I am thinking a real rout in those is still ahead (well it has to be since a lot of junk is still coming out). There are 2 high quality stocks that I think could suffer tremendously when the other junk falls - engage and drugstore. Maybe others but those come to mind. They have fared no better than some of the dogs and they might get thrown out with the bathwater when $$ really leaves.

To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (70679)	7/29/1999 10:10:00 PM
From: MoonBrother	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

> I am betting we are close to completing the correction. Maybe > another 200 DOW points. Glenn What makes you feel so sure? In fact, how far Net could continue go down IS a critical question we are facing right now. If you look at DOW, we are only off about 5% from the peak. Similar % with NAZ. But most Net leaders have been down upto 50% from the Apr. high, and not recovered significantly. So if just look at Net group, you might be right. But what if DOW has a 20% drop like we had in last Sep/Oct period? What if NAZ drops back to 2500? Can you still say that AMZN will stay above $100, AOL at $100, YHOO at $135, EBAY at $100? I seriously doubted. What if they all cut another 50% from the current prices? That could happen! One thing I noticed different nowadays is that, Net leaders used to have a trading pattern of "2 step forward,1 step backward". Now it seems the pattern has changed to "1 step forward, 2 steps backward". The reason, too many Net stocks are now in the plate. Take ENGA for example, it traded about 1.5mil shares today, sucked in about $45mil resources which were free for other stocks last week. It used to be the case that when people took profit, they kept money on the sideline waiting for the stock to go down, and then buy back in. Now once they left, they put money into other stocks, therefore the money is gone for good. I see this trend to continue at least in the foreseeable future. The value of most net stocks will keep falling to close up the valuation gap against other stocks. The days when net stocks easily shot up $30 ~ $50 daily is gone forever. Now we should more and more appreciate those $3 ~ $5 gains which we never paid attention before. Just my observation. Good luck! MB