To: Richard L. Williams who wrote (4223 ) 8/11/1999 1:45:00 AM From: Marty Rubin Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 4276
World Demand for Oil Is Set To Grow at Faster Pace in 2000(wsj.com/front page) August 11, 1999 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------World Demand for Oil Is Set To Grow at Faster Pace in 2000 By BHUSHAN BAHREE Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL GENEVA -- After slowing last year, growth in world oil demand is accelerating again and is expected to double next year, the Paris-based International Energy Agency said. The IEA said it expected demand to rise by about 1.8 million barrels a day in 2000, to 77.1 million barrels a day, as Asia and the industrial West continue to use more energy. Oil demand this year is expected to increase by about 900,000 barrels a day. The projections suggest tightening oil markets, at least until members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and some other exporters, such as Mexico, raise output limits they imposed following a collapse in crude-oil prices last year. That's because the IEA expects producers outside OPEC to increase their output by only 660,000 barrels a day in 2000, leaving more than 1.1 million barrels a day of demand to be met by increased OPEC production and from industry stocks. The supply problem may come to a head well before then, though, resulting in another price surge unless more supplies are seen to be in the pipelines or the resurgence in Asian demand is threatened by a new round of currency upheavals triggered by China. "The market needs more oil from OPEC in the fourth quarter," said Lawrence Goldstein, president of the New York-based Petroleum Industry Research Foundation. "It can't wait for [OPEC's] meeting in March." Oil prices have risen strongly recently -- they have doubled from their lows around year end -- and already have exceeded the top of the range of $18 to $20 a barrel that many of OPEC's key members indicated was their objective when they made a series of decisions to progressively cut output and end an inventory overhang. OPEC's ministers have said in recent weeks that they don't anticipate raising output quotas at their next meeting in Vienna in September. In part, that's because OPEC members are fearful of prematurely opening the taps and seeing prices wither quickly if industry stocks haven't been drawn down as much as expected. Indeed, the IEA said Tuesday that stocks in May were 54 million barrels more than it had previously estimated. The wild card in the oil market right now is China, which could cause a major upset. "There is a reasonable possibility that China might devalue its currency over the next six months," said Mr. Goldstein of the Petroleum Industry Research Foundation. That could have ripple effects in the region and affect oil demand greatly. Copyright © 1999 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.