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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ronald J. Clark who wrote (48610)	7/30/1999 12:27:00 AM
From: IndioBlues	Respond to of 95453

Ron, to tell you the truth MU may be a good one to short too. Terrible fundamentals, DRAM spot price in the tank, and Stochastic oscillator turning south. Check it out. If MACD picture were a little clearer I probably would short it. But I do understand your point about forward earnings projections which have, across sectors, detached from historical norms at the present. To my simple way of thinking, this detachment is liquidity-driven and when the liquidity dries up and heads into cash or fixed income the inflated P-Es underlying many stocks in many sectors will correct too. Maybe sharply, maybe slowly. Until the last run up, the OSX was largely spared because it is so closely tied to the price of crude. Now, I think some of that liquidity is finding its way into the patch. IMHO, at OSX 80+, we've come too far too fast. I just can't see holding an OSX portfolio on the hope-chain premise that $20+ oil is here to stay, which will eventually prompt increased capex spending, which will eventually create work for the dozens of idle or stacked rigs, which will eventually firm up day rates which will eventually fall to the bottom line of the drillers with stong enough balance sheets to make it that long.