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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul V. who wrote (31685)	7/30/1999 12:13:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Paul, re > The book is very thought provoking and, IMO, gives some insight why it is so difficult in projecting accurately the growth rate of technology.< That was my point in questioning Mr Morgan's prediction that semi equipment sales would double in five years. Of course, long term predictions are easier and a doubling in five years only requires an average yearly growth of slightly more than 14%. [rule of 72] And if he's off by a year nobody will remember. How does that jive with the constantly falling [monthly y-o-y comparison] semi equip shipments Ian linked yesterday? I would rather see some discussion of that than read more about Yo-yos. [no offense, Tito :)] Gottfried