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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Boca_PETE who wrote (7307)	7/30/1999 2:02:00 PM
From: Mr. BSL	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

Pete, benchmark highs are defined as the area between the intraday high and the closing high on a day that the market makes a new high. For example, if the s&P500 breaks the record of 1420, reaches 1440 and closes at 1430, the benchmark high will be between 1440 and 1430. If in the next week or two, the S&P goes into this area and does not CLOSE above 1430 (esp on weak volume) then we have a successful test (from a bears point of view) of the benchmark high. After a few successful tests on low volume, you can be pretty sure the market is heading down. If you have an unsuccessful test, you will get a close above 1440 and the uptrend will be intact. This is the opposite of benchmark lows. Remember the discussion about benchmark lows during the April 1997 gift horse? The DJIA moved down from 7000 on March 7th to 6477 on April 3rd with an intaday 4/3 low of 6379. The benchmark low was 6377 to 6477. The market rallied for about a week before retesting this benchmark low on the 11th. The DJIA went as low as 6358 but closed above 6377 at 6391 (a successful retest). The next trading day it closed at 6452 for confirmation. The uptrend was intact and we had a nice run for about 6 months. Hope this helps Dick

To: Boca_PETE who wrote (7307)	7/30/1999 11:09:00 PM
From: Investor2	Respond to of 15132

Re: "What specifically was Brinker seeing in the market as we made new highs in the averages last time? - Lower NYSE volume ? - Fewer advancing stocks ? - Increased number of declining stocks ? - Fewer new highs ? - More new lows ?" I wish I knew the answer. decisionpoint.com decisionpoint.com It doesn't look like any drastic changes in these indicators over the past few months. The advance-decline line has been pathetic for a year. (Who knows, maybe it takes a year before his model goes negative.) Best wishes, I2

To: Boca_PETE who wrote (7307)	7/30/1999 11:53:00 PM
From: JF Quinnelly	Respond to of 15132

The same question occurs to me when I hear the phrase "benchmark high". I don't think BB's likely to get specific since it might give away an indicator he would rather keep private.

To: Boca_PETE who wrote (7307)	7/31/1999 12:16:00 AM
From: marc ultra	Respond to of 15132

Pete re"What specifically was Brinker seeing in the market as we made new highs in the averages last time" ?I don't know but I think you are getting hung up looking for some technical pattern out of context. Bob is not mostly a technician. I suspect he is looking at the coming together of his model suggesting an approaching inflexion point which is then put in the context of seasonal activity and more traditional technical indications like looking at the internal nature of a possible test of a high that was deemed a strong candidate as the area for in this case the end of the bull and the start of the bear. As part of this his 4 major indicators taken together have likely severely deteriorated, the second week of July has often been a strong period in the market in a May to November period that historically is the weak half of the year. So perhaps when his model and seasonal factors all start suggesting a possible top he then looks for an expected test of that potential top and the technical nature of an expected test of that top may give him the confidence to pinpoint the time for an inflexion point and a call for action. This could all be a lot of worthless conjecture on my part but this is the sense I get Marc

To: Boca_PETE who wrote (7307)	7/31/1999 12:09:00 PM
From: Investor2	Respond to of 15132

Re: More on Benchmark Highs I've heard Bob talk about benchmark lows a number of times. However, I believe that I've never heard him use the phrase "benchmark high" prior to last week. IMO, that gives it some significance beyond the run-of-the-mill correction. Again, remember that Bob did not say that the recent highs were benchmark highs. He said only that they could prove to be benchmark highs, should certain events or conditions fall in place. Who knows, maybe the current correction will continue for another day or two and reach the 10% level Bob says is needed to extend the bull. Best wishes, I2