To: HotShot1 who wrote (4240 ) 7/30/1999 12:29:00 PM From: Jack Rayfield Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 8117
Hotshot1 I have looked back through your posts. And I have to give you credit your take on the company has been closer to reality than the more optimistic view that rest of us held several months ago. You have made the following statements and asked several times for me to provide you with a breakdown of how I have come up with my estimates for next year. Now I would like for you to add alittle meat to your vague statements. I have to admit that due to managements lack of response to our pleadings for some guidance, my unit sales estimates for next calender year have been reduced to 16,500. Based on expected state approvals taking 3 to 4 months once orders are accepted and product is available and assuming that Pyng is as good as their promise to have mass production online by Dec 99 (this is the biggest leap of all). Here are my expected sales by major type of customer: 5K---------- US Army (42k medics) including in the medic kits spread through out the Army bases 5K---------- Special Operations ( Navy, Air Force, Marines, Special Forces) also spread through out these units. .5K --20 Hospital ER (35 useage+ 15 stocked= 50 per site/year/2 for 6 months) 5K --100 EMS units (useage 50 per unit; protocol – last resort after IV failure) 1K------------ 25 EMS units (useage 100 per unit/2 for six months: protocol – time critical when IV can not be established in a reasonable time and/or first line access for cardiac arrest). So that breaksdown as 10k- military and 6.5K civilian EMS. Now I would like you to provide support for you estimate of no more than 50 units a month (300-500 by next summer). Also I would like to comment on your statement that Pyng trading at C$1.35 is overvalued because they have not made a profit yet. I do not understand this statement as most startup companies trade based on their potential rather than past performance. I guess you think that Pyng would be fairly valued at C.20 as that is about their cash value? The only reason it is trading below C$2.00 is because of management's lack of intergrity. Previous Posts expressing opinion that FY2000 sales would be minimal- "They won't do even close to 5000 units (let alone 1000/month). You guys are going to be disappointed if you don't lower your expectations." "Sales will materialize next year, but not in the quantity the optimists are expecting. Mass production will certainly not be required in 2000. By 2001-2002? Maybe." "You have to be realistic folks, this is a tiny company! The fact that the stock is trading over $1.00 is only because there were promoters who took the stock through the roof. From that high level, this price appears cheap. Yet the stock should never have gotten were it did to begin with. At the current stock price, the company is valued at over $12 million, which is absolutely ridiculous considering they haven't made a dime." "The experts at the expo didn't buy into it, so why should an experienced poster like yourself swallow that crap?" "That's one explanation. Personally, I don't expect much from the military. Anything above 50 units a month from them will be a surprise." "Assuming both rural sites order 350 units each, plus say another 300 total from various smaller sites (very optimistic #), then that would be 1000 units for the first year, or $98,500 in revenue (not even close to 7 figures). The military isn't likely to order 9000 units (if any)in a given year for one notable reason: they'll only need the device when in combat, and at last check, the U.S. was not at war." "Is it going to be a nickel and dime business, a few units here a few units there? I mean, RM has only been using 5 a month, and they will probably be the company's biggest customer! If the whole RM system eventually adopts it, then good revenue will be posted. But how long will that take?" "I will go on record as saying that this company won't sell more than 300-500 units tops ($30,000-$50,000) between now and next summer." "I've always seen this stock as a long-term investment, and don't expect profits for another 2 or 3 years." "This company will have to produce at least 1000 units a month consistently ($100,000 revenue/month or $1.2M rev./year) before anyone with respectability would even consider it for their portfolio. I'm hoping they can reach that level by the end of 2000, but I'd say 2001-2002 would be more realistic." "If a large site is using 5-10 per month, then a small one would probably use 3-5 per month. In turn, given the current # of company's involved, I can't see them selling more than 50-100 units per month tops in the first year, or 600-1200 units over the year. That would be $60,000-$120,000 in revenue between now and December of 2000."