To: MythMan who wrote (53896 ) 7/30/1999 11:22:00 AM From: John Pitera Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 86076
Briefing.com now on Devaluation Alert for Yuan..... Earlier today, we mentioned that we still have some concerns about the recent developments in Asia, particularly Korea. With the prospect for higher US interest rates, along with some speculation that Tsy Sec Summers may be shying away from the strong dollar policy, there has been little inclination to park some of the hotter money that has started to come off the equity table in Treasuries. However, China's innumerable attempts to spur consumption continue to pique our interest, and have us on devaluation alert. While we highlighted the possibility of a tax on interest income in China to spur consumption, we noted that it would likely have little impact given heightened worker insecurity. Given that more than three million state workers will likely lose their job this year, while an estimated six to seven million people who have already been laid off, have yet to find new jobs, it is unlikely that new measures designed to boost share prices will have much of an effect on consumption either. What is most perplexing however, is that the program could potentially have some benefits for cash-starved companies in desperate need of capital for restructuring. The new plan would allow listed and state-run firms to buy up to 75% of shares in initial offerings of companies with at least 400 mln yuan in capital, and force them to hold onto the shares for just 3 months, most likely leading to easy short-term capital gains. However, Beijing has done little to highlight such a possibility, as they are more content with promoting a more simple notion that a healthy stock market equals a healthy China. Yuan forward markets were largely quiet last night, though devaluation fears did increase a bit, as one-year yuan non-deliverable forwards rose 0.03 to 0.78. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------