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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (7318)	7/30/1999 11:51:00 AM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

What gets me is all the love for AOL. Some justify the high p/e on future earnings. I see the company as a "has been" if my vision comes through... I keep telling people that the AOL biz model is ripe for attack by the box makers and now Dell just announced that it will do just that. They are giving free ISP service with all DELL PCs they ship. They will probably boot up the PCs in their own portal and make it easy to collect the $9.95 monthly charge to continue...Now you can buy goods from Dell stores and talk to the same excellent customer support staff. Why bother with AOL when you can get it and support from your box maker? HWP and IBM will soon follow. Then look at MSFT. Get the DOJ off their backs or split them up and they will ship Windows that easily goes right to their MSN site where they are NOW giving people $400 rebates to join...rather than join AOL. So now you have boxmakers and the software in the box all competing for the AOL users... Who do you think will win? I bet by owning the best of the value priced boxers (IBM and HWP), msft and Intel you can't lose. It has been the best internet play out there and my watermelon smile has been huge. kirk out

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (7318)	7/30/1999 4:39:00 PM
From: Lars	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Justa, >>> Don: Yes, I remember that call. What a shame. I also remember a local radio financial advisor who was saying he was going out to buy more AOL at $160 and was recommending that listeners consider the same. >>> I don't know about the rest of the threaders but I am just starting to hear serious horror stories about people losing their @$$. I mean bad. I am hearing this from friends in Illinois and Wisconsin. The bad stories are starting to come out. Is anybody else hearing similar stories? I don't hear the "yeah I made $400,000 in AOL" as much but I just heard a story here about a couple who had just over $1million in AOL when it was in 160s. I guess they didn't want to sell any of the position because of the taxes. Huh?? Yes, you heard me right. The sad part is I know that would have been critical mass for them even after taxes. Now, you are seeing a textbook case of investor psychology. The pain of leaving the money on the table and the panic that it might visit some much lower prices. These crazy feelings and mind games all because someone was lucky enough to put $10,000 or $12,000 or whatever into a stock a few years back. All of this coupled with the fact that, yes, they may have to work until their early sixties versus calling it quits in their early 50s. I think the tide is starting to roll out.

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (7318)	7/30/1999 9:18:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Market Comment Ten day put/call ratio now stands at .65 and is in free fall chart formation with the last two days closing above .70. S & P closed today 6.34% off its high. NASDAQ 7.89% off the high. Russell performed well closing up for the day and above 440 support. Put/call link: decisionpoint.com

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (7318)	7/30/1999 9:34:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Respond to of 15132

Interest Rates The implied yield on the fed funds futures contract for September delivery rose 2 basis points today to 5.19 percent, 19 basis points above the target. The implied yield on the October contract rose 2 basis points to 5.27 percent, 27 basis points above the target. The spread between the yield on the futures contracts and the fed funds target suggests investors expect the Fed to raise the overnight bank lending rate again by October. In fact, they have started working on another rate increase by tagging on 2 basis points just for fun. Also, the market sees the probability of a 25 basis point tightening on August 24th at 76%!!! An interesting conclusion for the market draw at this point IMO as the data flow is nowhere near complete in order for the Green Man to make any kind of decision. The Green Man must love this stock market action though!