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Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jeff Mizer who wrote (7422)	7/30/1999 1:43:00 PM
From: Ken	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9818

MUST READ:< THE Y2K STATE OF THE UNION AS OF JULY 30, 1999> (The wise will heed and prepare using judgement. The fearful, the DUHnialists, the pollycrakers, who CARE ONLY for their cushy, predictable, 'normal' world remaining the same, regardless of any data, reports, logical analysises, good judgement, will TYPICALLY ignore and/or continue their attacks motivated by their own FEARS, and DANGEROUSLY try to influence others to disregard the reality and to improperly/not prepare). <<<< Comment: It is time to present my summary of what is incontrovertibly true, with only five months to go. I shall low-ball my remarks, making them as close to unchallengeable as I can. These should be the starting points in any discussion of the impact of y2k in 2000, whether national or personal. I hereby grant the right of anyone to reprint all or a part of this list, so long as a link to this document is provided. 1. The number of companies in the world that have reported 100% compliance of all mission-critical systems, and 100% compliance of its vendors and suppliers, is zero. We do not have to raise the two issues of final, integrated testing and third-party verification until one such company appears. 2. Noncompliant data will corrupt compliant data when imported into compliant systems. 3. To screen out bad data, an organization must cut off or filter computerized communications with noncompliant computers. It must know which outside computers are noncompliant. It must presume that all of them are noncompliant until proven otherwise. 4. The larger the number of data exchanges, the greater the likelihood of a major failure (the Beach/Oleson pain index). The Federal Reserve System has 316,862 of these links to the outside. 5. When the cut-off of outside contacts takes place, no industry will remain compliant with all of its present producers. Bankruptcies will escalate. 6. There is no compliant industry today. 7. No major money center bank on earth is compliant. 8. No national government is compliant. 9. Two state governments in the U.S. have claimed compliance. 10. At least 19 of 21 large U.S. cities are noncompliant. 11. There is insufficient time to identify and replace all noncompliant embedded chips. The world has by default adopted "fix on failure." 12. Noncompliant 286 and 386 computers are still in use all over the world, sometimes in control systems. 13. No microcomputer can safely be assumed to be compliant. All of them must be tested. So must their software, especially spreadsheets. This has not been done, and the sale of y2k testing software so far has been minimal. 14. The U.S. train transportation system is not compliant. 15. Very few power generation companies have announced mission-critical compliance. 16. No large telephone company has announced full compliance. 17. Phones and electrical power plants are intertwined; the failure of one will bring down the other. 18. Public water/sewer systems are not compliant, all over the world. 19. The chemical industry is way behind. 20. Chemicals are basic to manufacturing, and also to the treatment of drinking water. 21. Diesel and gasoline are chemicals. 22. No oil exporting country is compliant. The U.S. imports over half of its oil. 23. General Motors has 2 billion lines of code and 100,000 suppliers. 24. If a component is missing on an assembly line, the line must be shut down. (Example: the 1998 strike of GM's 9,200 new parts plant employees, which led to the temporary layoffs of over 100,000 other GM employees.) 25. Parts wear out. This includes turbines in power plants. 26. The typical large city power plant has 5,000 suppliers. 27. If a company sells to noncompliant companies, it will suffer a reduction of orders in 2000. 28. The division of labor is international. 29. Capital flows are computerized. 30. Most of the world's capital is digital. 31. Russia is sitting on top of a huge nuclear arsenal that will become unpredictable on January 1. 32. The health care industry is considered to be very far behind in every nation. 33. Public health systems are today not at the top of most politicians' "must fund" list. These low-visibility programs have no politically significant constituents. It will take a public health disaster to gain such constituents. 34. Although Medicare (HCFA) now claims 100% compliance, none of the 70 companies that provide the HCFA with its administrative services has announced compliance. 35. Although the FAA claims 100% compliance, only one major airport has: Atlanta. 36. If commercial aircraft cannot legally fly, their owners cannot meet their bank payments. 37. The FDIC's bank insurance program is not compliant. 38. The FDIC has $1.40 for every $100 in insured deposits, and 80% of this money is invested in U.S. government debt. 39. If most banks are closed, the U.S. government cannot collect revenues by check to fund this debt, which means the FDIC cannot get paid, which means that the banks will remain closed. 40. The Internal Revenue Service is not compliant. 41. The U.S. Treasury Department is not compliant. 42. The U.S. Department of Defense is not compliant. 43. The U.S. Navy defends Taiwan. 44. Taiwan has just declared unilaterally the end of the 50-year "one China" policy, which is basic to Communist China's foreign policy. 45. We import most of our microcomputer chips from Taiwan. 46. Germany is behind France. 47. Italy? What can I say? It got started on y2k this year. 48. For every $100 in U.S. bank deposits there is less than $1.20 in currency reserves in bank vaults. 49. There is about $6 trillion in electronic U.S. money (M-3). 50. There is about $525 billion in currency outside of banks, of which some two-thirds is believed to be outside the U.S. 51. The Federal Reserve System says it has $150 billion in currency and another $50 billion coming by December. Banks must either sell assets to buy this currency or borrow from the FED, thereby reducing their capital/assets ratio. 52. The Bureau of Engraving and Printing is at maximum capacity now just to replace old currency. 53. The Crane Corp. has had a monopoly on manufacturing paper for U.S. currency since 1879, so no great increase in output can be expected by December. 54. If there are no small bills to make change, the fast food industry will go bankrupt. But to maximize the value of the currency supply, the Federal Reserve System must issue large-denomination bills. It has not said what the ratio is for the newly printed bills' denominations. 55. The international bank wire transfer system is not compliant. Gary North --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

To: Jeff Mizer who wrote (7422)	7/31/1999 11:56:00 AM
From: bearcub	Respond to of 9818

not only do actions speak louder than words, we're being told 'watch the birdie' all the while compliant deadlines are being moved out, military troops being moved in, and legislation is being signed into law. as long as i can remember (and i'm 73) the only "birdie" our government has ever 'motioned at us' has been the obscene variety. we have mostly learned, been conditioned to 'present ass' also known as "grin and 'bare' it." how very very 'revealing.' thank you for taking the time to post that well written article.