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To: JRI who wrote (138138)7/31/1999 2:38:00 AM
From: stockman_scott  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 176388
 
~OT~ John: Check out this link to a perspective on 'What the Fed Watches' -- by a New York Times economics columnist...

nightlybusiness.org

I am cautiously optimistic about how the market will perform in the next 6-12 months. Interest rates may edge up BUT it will not be the end of the world. Inflation is under control and we continue to be in a tremendous period of economic growth.

You said...

<<I am heavily weighted in big cap, tech, growth, and my port has held up well during the 9% Naz correction, so I feel good about big cap growth's strength here (unlike April) >>

You tend to have the strategy that some of my relatives have....they focus on investing in outstanding large cap tech stocks (like Cisco, DELL, EMC, MSFT, ORCL, WCOM, etc...)....Yet, they are also diversified into selective health care/ pharmaceutical and financial services stocks.

I tend to be more aggressively focussed on investing in very promising high tech, internet, bandwidth and medical products stocks....all of my current holdings are nasdaq stocks and the only large cap stock is DELL. I believe that selective internet and bandwidth infrastructure stocks hold a great deal of promise -- for investors that are willing to take a lot of risk and deal with significant volatility. For example, recently I have started to build large positions in stocks like E-Loan (the first mover in the online mortgage market) and EFNT (Efficient Networks is a leading producer of equipment for the high speed DSL networks). Both of these firms are pioneers in hyper-growth markets, have outstanding management and IMO are at 'quite reasonable' valuations. DELL is still one of my top 5 positions and it's an exceptional stock to buy and hold. I am very impressed with DELL's ability to web-enable its business and they clearly are becoming an e-commerce powerhouse. The next quarterly release should be interesting -- and may reveal quite a bit about where DELL's new growth initiatives are taking us.

Even though I feel we may experience some serious volatility in the next 6-9 months I am quite fully invested. I expect that we could go into the year 2000 with the Nasdaq at record levels. Careful stock selection and patience could really pay off <G>.

Enjoy the weekend.

Best Regards,

Scott



To: JRI who wrote (138138)8/2/1999 2:17:00 AM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 176388
 
~OT~ John, Chuzz, et al....Two Opposing Valuation Viewpoints...FYI...

<<Updated 12:14 AM ET August 1, 1999

By Pierre Belec

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Here's an investment strategy that would keep Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan tossing and turning at night: 10 percent gold and the rest in Internet stocks.

Sounds crazy? Yes. But this is a Brave New World and people's ideas of investing for their old age are indeed revolutionary.

James Dines, publisher of the Dines Letter, is crazy about Internet stocks.

"This is the real thing," he said. "My vision has been of tremendous bullishness on the Internet, which is where the fortunes are going to be made," said Dines, an original "Internet bug."

Dines does not think the Internet sector is a giant bubble ready to burst, even though some stocks have soared more than 1,000 percent at the blink of an eye.

"The technology is the future and it's starting to branch out to Latin America, China -- and the growth is going to be unbelievable ... the ability of the entire world to communicate instantaneously, practically free, has a potential that frankly blew our minds," he said.

Dines believes the Internet will eventually take some of the play away from the nation's biggest blue-chip companies.

The problem with the skeptics is that some people can't see the future because they are trying to evaluate the Internet in terms of what happened in the last 100 years, he said.

But some Wall Streeters worry that investors may be going overboard on the fast-paced industry, and there is a risk that a crash climate could be forming.

Fed chief Greenspan has warned that investors may be foolishly bullish about stocks, and that a sudden market reversal could destroy a lot of the wealth that has produced annual double-digit market gains for almost five years.

One market strategist thinks that the Internet is just a fat speculative bubble that is just waiting to blow up and drag the rest of the market into the dumpster.

Raymond DeVoe Jr., market strategist for Legg Mason Wood Walker, sees classic signs of trouble in the high-flying Internet sector. He says Internet stocks that have recently been offered to the public should be renamed "Crash.Com.">>