To: Robert Sloan who wrote (8580 ) 7/31/1999 8:44:00 PM From: Erik T Respond to of 20297
Robert, This new era of investing has created a new way that people look at investments. With the explosion of the intenets over the last two years, people become frustrated and angry when stock prices don't explode upward. Not too long ago people used to be happy if their investment went up 10-15% a year. We see movements like that often on a daily basis. We also know that it is primarily news and revenue, not earnings that drive up the stock prices. The upward pressure put on stocks is created by individual investors, like you and me, but it takes many to move any given stock price up. So, the popular one's benefit: AOL, Yahoo!, eBay, etc. At this point, Checkfree is not a popular one. It hasn't grown revenues very much, not much in the way of exciting announcements, although the announcements made have been very significant for the development of the business. But it will take announcements of some "big name" partners to really move the stock price up. So, we on this thread wait to hear about Yahoo! and others. As for portal announcements, they continue to be pure speculation. While a Yahoo! deal appears imminent from all the circumstantial evidence, it is no guarantee. The press has named Yahoo!, but the company has said nothing about this. What about AOL, eBay and others? This is all pure speculation from members on this thread. But this is what makes the discussion groups so much fun and interesting. AOL has close ties with Intuit/Quicken and it is suspected that EBPP will draw and keep eyeballs pointed at a given portal, so conclusions get drawn that a Checkfree/AOL deal is imminent any day. One poster here says he saw the road show promotional video which shows a father and daughter buying goods on eBay with Checkfree bill pay system. So, conclusions get drawn that a deal between eBay and Checkfree is imminent any day. Not necessarily true. But it is interesting to speculate. It has become a bit of a hobby for many on this thread to find info and draw conclusions about this infant industry. Everyone here hopes to make money as well. None, however, that I know of are insiders, so we don't know when deals will be made public. We can only guess. Again, in this new era everyone expects things to happen sooner, rather than later. As I have recently found out, the business Checkfree participates in is extremely complex. Many big names have failed in the past. Getting things up and running takes longer than many other internet technologies. Besides this business deals with people's money so must always be "dial tone quality" which takes longer to implement. So where are the announcements? They are likely coming, but it is pure speculation as to whom and when. No amount of due diligence digging can accurately predict. How about takeovers? I don't know of anyone who thinks Checkfree will be take over. In fact many have given sound reasons why not. But again this is pure speculation. What about new accounts? No one knows. Some have speculated based on known numbers of new online banking customers, but no one on the outside knows for sure. Some make minute by minute price predictions. Again, no one knows for sure what is going to happen. Some trade in and out daily others hold a core and wait. Either way, you probably should not make investment decisions based on what others are advocating. This is just a forum for exchange of thoughts and ideas. I feel your frustration at the stocks price performance, but no one here promised you anything from their predictions. The board members have compiled an enormous amount of information in one place on this infant industry, and some could be regarded experts in the field, I think. You can use that information as you see fit, but attacks on these generous people have no place here. Much of what you see here is fact; much is in the imagination of the authors. Only time will tell which is fact or fiction, but people here are trying to use the facts and use their imagination as to how different scenarios could play out so as to try to be ahead of the curve. Every scenario conjured up here may not come to pass, but some likely will. We all search, think and wait to see what happens next. What actually happens and when is out of our control, and the chimpanzee's control for that matter. I have nothing further to say about where to go from here, just that this stock is risky and should probably not be played with one's mortgage or milk money. Regards, Erik (IMHO)