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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Viapiano who wrote (70916)	7/30/1999 6:00:00 PM
From: GST	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

Paul -- AMZN will fail at much of what it tries to do as it tries to do more and more. It does some things well now, but it will lose its ability to execute as it grows and diversifies -- growth and diversification will make the company much more difficult to manage. It is clearly at risk of going bankrupt -- the faster it grows and diversifies, the greater the burn rate and the greater the risk. If it falters, or if the market shuts the financing window, they are road kill. AMZN is a long shot. And it is going to get priced that way between now and Christmas. Sure, it could double in value -- once it drops to 10 or 20 dollars post-split. And that is the time to play it -- as a beaten down stock that just might survive. Not as an overpriced piece of dog doo doo with poor chances of making it in an increasingly hostile investment climate.

To: Paul Viapiano who wrote (70916)	7/30/1999 6:01:00 PM
From: Michael Young	Respond to of 164684

<<I believe that the new merchandise will increase revenues>> You are merely stating the obvious. Of course new merchandise will increase revenues. But that doesn't mean it is a good idea. <Profitability is way off in the future as it is for all startups, sometimes for many years.>> You are mistaken. AMZN is not a "startup." It is a publicly traded company with a $17 billion market valuation. Sam Walton built his empire for many years before he took it public. <<Some of the bears forget that it took WalMart 12 years to reach the revenues that AMZN had just last year>> So? WMT made a big profit. MIKE

To: Paul Viapiano who wrote (70916)	7/30/1999 6:24:00 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Some of the bears forget that it took WalMart 12 years to reach the revenues that AMZN had just last year. Which validates the proposal from the analysts (Meeker and others) regarding hypergrowth. The amazing thing is that they did that by selling only books!

To: Paul Viapiano who wrote (70916)	7/30/1999 6:54:00 PM
From: Michael Young	Respond to of 164684

<<<Profitability is way off in the future as it is for all startups, sometimes for many years.>> This statement deserves further examination. On the one hand you imply that we shouldn't be too harsh on AMZN because it is a mere "startup." Yet, on the other hand, you suggest that AMZN should be valued as if it is a blue-chip money machine with strong margins and a defendable market position. Will the market let you have your cake and eat it too? MIKE

To: Paul Viapiano who wrote (70916)	7/31/1999 12:20:00 PM
From: Michael Young	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Barrons pokes a few holes in the "growth" thesis this weekend. Shouldn't revenue per customer be ACCELERATING rather than DECLINING????? It appears that revenue per customer FELL by 20% in the latest quarter! ___________________ "In fact, if you listen to Amazon and its acolytes, the primary thing that bears watching is the top line. "It's a revenue story," they chant. And until this year, Amazon's quarterly revenues grew at a 30% sequential clip. But in the first quarter, revenue growth slowed to 16%; and in the second, it crawled to 7%. Naturally, holiday shopping is likely to pick up some of that slack during the critical fourth quarter. What's more, as Amazon's annual revenues approach $2 billion, it's going to get a lot tougher to rack up 30% average quarterly rises based on the pure heft of the numbers alone. But here's the thing that even the most ardent believers must be starting to lose sleep over: revenues per customer are sliding. On average, even though Bezos is expanding his merchandise mix by leaps and bounds, his customers appear to be buying less."