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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gary Wisdom who wrote (21594)	7/30/1999 7:12:00 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Gary, that is the sign of a top people are confused do not trust their own analysis and buy stocks for the simplest reason because they go up. What else can I say. Pull most of your money out of the market the expected will arrive unexpected. The DOW dropped 300 points in 2 days and no one cares. I remember that once 50 points days were a big event. Yes the DOW was 3000 then but 3.5 times 50 is still 175 DJIA points. People are to cavalier about market drops. BWDIK Haim

To: Gary Wisdom who wrote (21594)	7/30/1999 7:25:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 99985

Gary, the big driving force behind this bull market was up to now the combination of strong economic growth coupled with low inflation. i would not be surprised if this era was replaced with a period of slow growth coupled with high inflation. at least that's what recent economic data seem to point to. if stagflation really is in the cards it will be the end of the bull for a while. of course it is still too early to tell whether goldilocks has fallen prey to the business cycle, not enough data yet to make that judgment. re: auto sales: they are simply looking forward. rising interest rates are considered very bad for the car business. re: JNPR: i have this thing on my watch-list for shorting opportunities. they may be in an exciting business, but have you ever looked at the financials of this thing? the valuation of nearly 8bn. is out of this world for a company with $13mio. in revenues and $34mio of trailing losses, regardless of it's growth potential. regards, hb

To: Gary Wisdom who wrote (21594)	7/30/1999 8:59:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Respond to of 99985

Wisdom, >>>Some guy on cnbc says auto sales are going to slow in the second half<<< This particularly piques my interest because in the old era, they use to say so goes GM, so goes the country. The auto stocks highlighted by the recent action in daimler chrysler are lagging the S&P big time. I guess in the new era --- a small employer like MSFT that is 8% of GDP is all that counts. bb

To: Gary Wisdom who wrote (21594)	7/30/1999 9:37:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Respond to of 99985

>>Why is everyone chasing semi stocks when they're at 52 week highs and shunning everything else that is down more than 50% from the highs?<< The US Stock market... the only place people never want to buy when things are on sale and where they absolutely have to own what ever is at the highest price in history <ng> >>Some guy on cnbc says auto sales are going to slow in the second half. But the market says the economy's overheating. WELL, WHICH IS IT?<< J6P's brainwashing that low oil will last forever and he absolutely must drive an SUV or be un-cool is reaching it's peak now that every driveway has one (except mine). This is slowing the need for new vehicles since everyone is now with the in crowd. Now they are letting oil rise and soon they will switch tape recording and start playing the tape that says "the environment is in trouble and oil is too expensive, trade in your SUV and drive a gas mizering low polution vehicle". At this time, car sales will start rising again. Don't worry though, J6P has no mind of his own, so the swing will be quick once it begins. As for the market, My call for DOW 10350 may be off but I am not sure. A quick scan tonight showed some support around 10500 so I will need more time to look. My daily likes the 10350 but my P&F seemed to favor 10500 on a quick glance. No time tonight to play with it so until later ... Good Luck, Lee EDIT - Ben, nice link. As another already said, it is logical but then this market is never logical. Manias swing both ways, we just have to be on the right train as it leaves. <g>