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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Apollo who wrote (4399)	7/31/1999 9:12:00 AM
From: DlphcOracl	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Snasraway: Regarding market next two months: Common sense says that there will be a significant NASDAQ correction over the next two months, providing an excellent entry point for initiating long-term positions in many of the technology stocks, gorilla or otherwise. Follow my logic: 1. If someone had asked you on Jan. 1 what you thought an excellent year for NASDAQ would be, what would you have said? I said 25% return would be outstanding. With NASDAQ starting 1999 at 2200, this means year end of 2750 for NASDAQ with a 25% return. 2. Knowing what we know now regarding inflation, economy, international picture, what is your prediction for NASDAQ 4th quarter 1999? I think it will be excellent and would guess 15-20% for the quarter (which is really quite extraordinary). Let's assume 20%! For NASDAQ to have a 20% 4th quarter and finish the year at 2750 (see #1 above), it has to START the 4th quarter at 2290. In summary, with NASDAQ now at 2640, I see nothing but downside risk, with a 15% correction between now and Oct. 1, testing the 2300 level. By July 15th, I sold ALL stocks which I did not have a 25% profit on at that time, keeping the remainder as long-term holdings. I am now 1/3 stocks and 2/3 cash. If I'm correct, I will load up on a number of great stocks and establish additional long-term positions in them at a more favorable entry point. The stocks I am looking to buy into that I do not already own are: JDSU, TXN, SEBL, PMCS, VTSS, NOK, Softbank ("Japanese CMGI"). I already own "the Q", but am looking to add to my position. Any comments, positive or negative, on the ramblings above would be appreciated. One other thought: although there really is never a "bad" time or correct time to buy a gorilla or great stock if you are looking long-term, it is easier to hold it if its first move is up 15-20% rather than down 20-25%!!