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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: put2rich who wrote (65583)	7/31/1999 2:00:00 PM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

td, The safest time to short stocks is at tops. Most players wait until they are already down a lot and take a lot of extra risk doing that. But it is scarier to short or buy puts at tops than it is after the media has already noted the decline. Not only is consumer debt too high, but so is corporate debt. Since the economy has no savings, the only way businesses can expand or improve is by issuing debt. Yes, they can issue shares, but since the business do not kick out nearly the rate of return share prices imply they do, that is more expensive in the long run. Unfortunately, they have all expanded using debt while most products are in glut. How long a bear market lasts depends on how you define a bear market and where you got in. For example, if you bought the market at the top in 1968 and held on, you got even in nominal dollars in 1982, and on spending power in 1984. However, if you bought at the bottom in 1975, what others considered a stand still or do nothing, 1976-1982, market was actually one of the best bull markets of all time. So, IMHO, the key is not being fully loaded at the top. Otherwise, you may see your money under water for 12-14 years, as in 1968-1982 or 1984, or for 25 years as in 1929-1954.