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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James Clarke who wrote (7918)	7/31/1999 2:19:00 AM
From: mr.mark	Respond to of 78796

jjc, if i may say so, i like your style. :) mark

To: James Clarke who wrote (7918)	7/31/1999 2:26:00 AM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 78796

Jim, I don't agree with you. I'm one who's not reading any of your short selling recommendations. My general observation is that it's a loser's game for any amateur investor to say,"gee, the market is so high, and some stocks are so obviously mispriced, ergo I'll just simply reverse the process and start shorting some of the most egregious examples." But as I've said before, my opinion is, the only way people are going to learn that you will not make substantial money through shorting is to short, short, short. -g- Then you'll see it for yourselves. I will argue again for UAL. UAL is strong in the Asian market. Asia is coming back. UAL trades at a relative low price to book value. Fund managers with positions in UAL include Dreman (per Bloomberg Dec '98) and Marisco (p. 170, Fortune, 7/19/99). For AMR you say to back out TSG. TSG is trading now at 31x eps and about 8x book value. Trading in a yearly range between 23 and 72, now about 63, what value do you ascribe to TSG? When I posted here that I was buying TSG @ 27, no one commented that they thought it was a value at that price. When it was about 35 and reported lower earnings, the stock dropped sharply back into the 20's. So for me, I will have some difficulty valuing TSG anywhere near 60. I also challenge the conventional wisdom that AMR is the best managed of the large airlines. Crandell may have been the smartest of the bunch (hub systems, frequent flyer programs), but he's gone now. Meanwhile AMR still has plenty of challenges facing them - employee pay scales, South American routes, troubled alliances. JMO, Paul (long BAB (British Air) and UAL)

To: James Clarke who wrote (7918)	7/31/1999 3:26:00 PM
From: Madharry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78796

It just occurs to me that many of these home health companies took on alot of debt in order to purchase competition or expand geographically. If interest rates do go up it might be the straw that breaks the camel's back for some of them and force them into bankruptcy.

To: James Clarke who wrote (7918)	7/31/1999 10:05:00 PM
From: sjemmeri	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78796

OT - shorting Got to get my 2 beans in on this before people get completely tired of this on VI board. Like everyone here (almost), I think the major indices could take 1/3 cut and still be overvalued. And I would not be surprised to see it happen in the next couple months. However, I also would not be surprised to see another couple years of mostly up with no corrections bigger than 10-20%. That said, I've been playing the downside off and on for the last year - mostly amzn, amat, amtd, mu, irid, and a few others. However, I've done it with put options rather than short position. Anyone going short should read Michael Burke's 90/10 piece and consider all the good reasons to do puts rather than short (limited losses, greater than 100% upside, etc.). My big winners in some of the positions mentioned have more than made up for the worthless expiration of some puts. James, since your thesis is that this downdraft will happen in next 3 months, you should be in put options on those stocks - no worries about borrowing stock or getting squeezed out.