...$21 dollar oil, 6.11% long bonds in the U.S., certain credit spreads, (signifying liquidity problems) at decade highs, and $30 billion worth of intervention fails to halt a yen surge. Had most market analysts been given those facts at the beginning of the year, I don't think a one would have predicted the 11,000 Dow we had a few days ago and the $256 gold we have today. You would have had predictions of a 7,000 Dow and $400 gold...
...Commercial banks have a central bank to bail them out of this type of liquidity squeeze, but there is no lender of last resort to bullion banks, so gold interest rates rise as a result. The bullion banks must borrow to fund their gold loans, no matter what the cost...
There is a good reason why the central banks may be withdrawing deposits from the bullion banks. Perhaps the central banks see the increased risk in the bullion banks, and are therefore pulling out their gold from the bullion banks for safety reasons. I'm sure the central banks remember how the central bank of Portugal lost 17 tonnes of gold that it had on loan to Drexel Burnham when that firm went under...
... a "hypothetical" of what just may have happened and why "what may have occurred" is going to contribute to an astonishing rise in the price of gold.
Say a large, macro hedge fund ( not Soros ) had invested heavily in securities in third world countries and in other illiquid securities.
Then say, it was hit with massive redemptions in the billions from its partners. Now what if that firm's capital base was 4 to 7 times greater than Long Term Capital Management? If the hedge fund had to liquidate positions, both "the hypothetical hedge fund" and the entities that they have invested in would suffer terribly. And, who knows, maybe this would set off a "systemic risk" chain re-action which is what the Fed feared if Long Term Capital Management went down for the count and why the N.Y. Fed organized a bailout in that case.
The "hypothetical" hedge fund knows it has a big liquidity problem so it informs the Fed of its precarious financial condition. The Fed, knowing how fragile the leveraged financial system is at the moment, arranges another bailout, but The Fed cannot do it the same way as they did for Long Term Capital Management ( for fear of a backlash by free market proponents and for fear of having to reveal how they would accomplish this new bailout ), so they call their "ace in the hole", The Bank of Greenland. After all, an official of the Bank of Greenland stated the decision had been made for some time and they were waiting for something to implement that decision. The N.Y. Fed ( again ) then notifies its cronies, "The Goon Squad", led by Golden Locks of what is coming and notifies them that it will be safe to arrange a massive gold loan for the "hypothetical hedge fund" for the time being because they have made sure the price of gold will be going down for months to come.
Of course, all this will be kept hush hush. It has to be kept hush hush because the implications of this - once known to the world, would prove that the gold market is being manipulated and reveal who is involved in this outrage. The dirty deed is then arranged - dirty, to all of us that believe in fair play and free markets. Thus, the bullion dealers arranged to lend theis "hypothetical" hedge fund billions of dollars via gold loans ( perhaps 10 to 15 million ounces ). The gold is sold into the market, depressing the price of gold further after the BOG announcement. That tremendous supply shock attracts more supply and begins feeding on itself, eventually knocking the gold price down sharply. This helps out the nervous bullion dealers, solves the problem in the short term for the hedge fund, an eventually panics some central banks and producers into panic sales.
For sure, it is public knowledge that Golden Locks was selling gold just about every day after the BOG announcement. Maybe for this "hypothetical" hedge fund. Yet, the bullion dealers feed the press with stories of CB and producer selling to cover up the fact that it is really this "hypothetical hedge fund", among other nefarious types, doing the selling. We have already alluded to the N.Y. Fed selling gold right after the BOG announcement. Perhaps it was this "hypothetical" hedge fund doing so with the N.Y Fed's bailout blessing and orchestration.
...brag about their winnings and then beg for help when they are about to go into the toilet and lose badly. Remember, this "hypo", hedge fund somehow managed to borrow gold right around the recent high price high as it was ready to take out $290 and put the gold borrowing positions of many financial institutions in jeopardy ... could possibly not believe...
..., the well known astrologer, market technician, just told his followers that the worst stock market crash this century is underway. He has an outstanding reputation for making calls... ..., we think he may just be right.
... Fox Guarding the Chicken Coop. This is the same William McDonough who arranged the LTCM bailout, hushed up the LTCM gold loan situation, and sits all over the gold market ( if we are correct ) with a trading account at Goldman Sachs, run by number two N.Y. Fed Man, Peter Fisher.
... day is coming and as the calling in of the gold loans gains momentum, ... $400 gold might be much closer than you could every imagine.
Midas du Metropole
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... GATA artist, Alain Despert, is the latest arrival on the Dallas art scene as he opened his "Arts District Gallery" in elegant Fairmont Hotel. It is only steps away from the Dallas Museum of Art and is the showcase gallery for his colorful and contemporary paintings. Alain, a native of France who is widely know for his Absolut vodka painting, has just moved to Dallas to set up his permanent base in the United States.
In 1997 an image of Alain Despert's "Sante Fe" series was selected for the Fine Art Collection of "Best Buddies", non-profit organization founded by Anthony Kennedy Shriver to enhances lives of people with mental retardation.
Alain Despert's art is also featured at the Cafe, www.lemetropolecafe.com
Bill Murphy Le Patron lemetropolecafe.com mail to lepatron@lemetropolecafe.com with questions or comments Copyright 1999 Le Metropole Cafe |