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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: unclewest who wrote (26082)	7/31/1999 5:15:00 PM
From: grok	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

RE: <my calculations were for 2001 and 2002. the delay was for 90 days. june to september of this year 1999.> Isn't there a continuous delay? Doesn't it work like this: dram maker ships drams and reports how many to rambus at the end of each quarter and then rambus counts revenue in the following quarter, so rambus rev is always one quarter behind dram shipments rather than a one time delay. I would expect that Q4 each year is the largest quarter for dram shipments both because of continuous growth and due to xmas. But Q4 counts in the following year's rev for rambus. I don't have data at my finger tips but just suppose the dram market grows like this: 1999: $18M 2000: $25M 2001: $30M 2002: $40M Don't use these numbers because I just made them up but the point is that the dram market is expected to grow rapidly for several years. But if you shifted it by one quarter it might look more like 16, 22, 27, 36. Maybe not worth bothering about since all assumptions have a lot of variance in them but I would reduce "Rambus revenue dram shipments" by about 10% due to this delay factor.