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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HairBall who wrote (21672)	7/31/1999 2:40:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Hi Lg; Thanx; The thoughts and most of the experience is there but, getting it down on paper is not one of my better talents , to often I look back on what I said and cringe at the "way" I said it , then I realize just how easy it is to be seen & taken by others to mean something else. I'm in such a constant state of revising how I express concepts tath I don't feel I could ever turn out a book. It's not so much my concepts I feel need revising but the way they are depicted, however I do even revise a few concepts. The latest one being a switch from the idea that the Major Big Cap stocks are primary in determining market direction. They may at times lead or follow, it turns out the primary determining factor is found in sentiment and is seen best in the most "Active" per dollars being swapped from hand to hand. So I'm making up a new type index, weighted by "Dollar volume traded" this is still a work in progress but so far just using the 11 top $ traded stocks it's turning out to be one asskicking leading indicator. It's seems so much more valid than my Head/Tail theory taht I'm grateful I didn't write a book on that older concept. As good as the older one was & it seemed to work, it had some serious short comings I didn't see until this new one congealed in my mind, however had I not started on the Head/tail theory ( tied to the proliferation of index funds) then I may never have noticed this newest one. ------------ BY the way for the time being I only pick stocks which hit the most active list "regularly" not IPOs or one time whacked or hyped affairs, also they must trade both here and on foreign exchanges. Did you see my post at my surprise of AOL being at the head of the list..( it trades on an average of about twice the dollars that MSFT does ), then how in the world did Yhoo wind up as 8 in the index right after GE ? Now taht seemed odd to me with it only having 27.88B in market cap, were all the rest over 100B up to 433B indeed Yhoo is trading more dollar volume than CSCO who is almost 8 times her market cap, well by accident not smarts I stumbled on YHoo "Warrants" trading in Frankfurt my God the warrants out on that baby, and don't they have a vested interest in the price of the stock, hmmm and what we see as the posted market cap based on shares out, may not represent even half of the real market cap if there are all these warrants out..hmmm ------------------ Well the more I dig and and uncover the more I see "This Stock Market Thing has very little to do with investing it's one great big momentous Crap Game, and the dice are loaded" <G> Jim