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Technology Stocks : Alliance Semiconductor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sun-tzu who wrote (5669)	7/31/1999 1:12:00 PM
From: Ram Seetharaman	Respond to of 9582

Sun- You are forgetting a key Street point! Most stocks react to how the future looks. While history can repeat itself as Ken showed in the stock charts, it will not repeat if the future looks bad. I see nothing stopping ALSC from price appreciation for the next two years, as we enter into another wave of Semi/Chip expansion, with ALSC having the added advantage of the recently analyzed book value of $ 21.

To: sun-tzu who wrote (5669)	7/31/1999 1:20:00 PM
From: Charles R	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9582

sun-tzu, <Until they have solid earnings, I'm afraid that their assets are not enough to hold these valuations. > Except for some limitations on holding times, ALSC's $20+ book value components that is quoted around the thread are mostly liquid. So, what you are saying is that you wouldn't pay $10 for a $20 fixed deposit that pays in a year. Now, that is completely upto you but, this makes no economic sense whatsoever - unless you have identified some fundamental risk to the company that is off the balance sheet (such as a lawsuit). Can you expand? Chuck P.S.: The concern from other posters on the thread, as far as I can tell, is not about the stock tanking but what the stock could be if the company is well managed. This company, if well managed, should have a valuation of at least 4X sales in today's environment not counting the impact of its assets.

To: sun-tzu who wrote (5669)	7/31/1999 9:04:00 PM
From: Ken Muller	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9582

Sun-tzu: <<The recent blackout in Taiwan certainly will not help the situation.>> On the contrary sun-tzu, the blackout will cause a mad scramble for wafer starts. And who (probably by shear luck) paid for increased wafer starts last quarter? Our old friends at ALSC. Those starts have just turned into gold. If these guys were in Vegas shooting the dice, you wouldn't be able to get close to the table.

To: sun-tzu who wrote (5669)	8/1/1999 5:05:00 PM
From: Ram Seetharaman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9582

Sun, You seem to talk as if ALSC has investments in unrelated pork bellies and they are not established in the chip business. The $ 1.27 earnings last quarter came from investments in the "semi/Chip" business only! It is the fact that "they are established in that business and know the good and bad side of the business" helps them make shrewd investment decisions in the very field of Chip/Semis. I hope the $ 7 million they hope to invest in a new "startup" venture takes off like Maverick Networks. Then they will have no problem in borrowing money in the Silicon Valley or Wall Street, since they will be known as a company that invests money wisely. If not this year at least next year they will for sure see a $ 21 stock price!