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To: Ahda who wrote (38136)	8/1/1999 12:59:00 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Respond to of 116764

It is interesting Japan is printing and markets are moving and just how that will affect world economy say five years from now with paper in abundance everywhere who knows. But I think there is quite a bit of disagreement on how effective Japan's stimulus measures have been. They still haven't been able to encourage their populace to spend instead of save. Consumer spending is what drives any economy, and so far the US has been acting as a proxy for their domestic market. When the US was in a similar situation during the great depression, I believe we were required to devalue the dollar by some 60% in order to prime the economic pump. Japan has done nothing nearly that extreme yet their situation is more grave given their govt and banking liabilities. That's why I still believe the other shoe has yet to drop in Japan and why US assets and money will continue to be the place of relative safety. They have no choice but to monetize that massive national debt (ie: print money), but it has to be done on a massive scale in order to shock their economy out of its lethargy. One of the adverse effects of such a devaluation would be that Japan's energy prices would increase significantly since oil is denominated in dollars. Why people believe that putting money in Japan is such a great idea, when they run the risk of such an eventual devaluation, is simply beyond me. But I certainly can see the Yen making a technical move while the dollar corrects, but I don't see a collapse of the dollar. But who knows... maybe I'm wrong... we'll see. Regards, Ron