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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (42569)	8/1/1999 9:48:00 PM
From: RJL	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

"Globex is up a bit... but then it was on Friday before the opening bell." As far as I've been able to see, Globex means nothing until atleast 7:30 AM. There's often some pretty big swings beginning at around 2:30 (when Germany opens) and about 5:00 AM. So unless some very large gains or losses are made early on, I tend to ignore Globex until morning. JMO. Rich

To: William H Huebl who wrote (42569)	8/1/1999 11:36:00 PM
From: P.Prazeres	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

August 1, 1999 Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 255.81 points to 10,655.15 (-2.34%), the Nasdaq Composite was down 53.91 points to 2638.49 (-2.00%), the S&P 500 was down 28.22 to 1328.72 (-2.08%) and the Russell 2000 index of small cap stocks was down 3.61 to 444.77 (-0.81%). For the year, the Dow is up +16.05%, the Nasdaq up +20.33%, the S&P up +8.09% and the Russell 2000 up 5.41%. The StockMotions Newsletter Tracking Portfolio is up 34.78% for the year. To automatically receive portfolio updates before they happen, you may sign up at: stockmotions.com . [During the week, it covered the rest of its Internet sector short positions.] Since mentioning two weeks ago that a pullback wouldn't be a surprise, the Nasdaq has fallen almost 10%…the rest of the market is not doing all that much better…but now what? I'll try to answer that in a moment, but first I have to vent about the insanity that happened in Washington this past week. Last week, the Senate passed a bill that would cut taxes by almost $800 billion over the next decade….the equivalent to a fiscal stimulus package. In last week's newsletter, I outlined why I think such a move is a horrible mistake. Of course, President Clinton promises to veto the bill, after which, the “real negotiating” will begin…..all this for the sake of politics! What a total waste of time and taxpayer money. Wouldn't it be a gag if the President signed the bill into law? It would certainly teach the irresponsible ones who voted for it quite a lesson in economics! OK….no more editorial. The Internal Indicators Simply put, the market is at an inflection point. Too many internal indicators are on the brink of breaking through key supports. If they do, watch out below. The Dow closed below its 50 day MA on Thursday and Friday….it now sits almost 200 points below that moving average. This is a large area to fill to the upside just to get the Dow back into a safety zone. The Nasdaq bounced off its 50 day moving average during the week and managed to close above it each time…admittedly not much breathing room left. It is sitting about 33 points above its 50 day MA. New lows on the NYSE have now been over 40 on all but five trading days since June 1st….not a good sign. Although this indicator failed in the first few months of this year, it simply cannot be ignored because of that rare failure. The number of new lows during the week were over 100 every day….(possibly signaling some exhaustion in selling – should this be just a correction). The NYSE cumulative A/D line is near its lows of last October and this March…both times just before the beginning of another advance. The CBOE Volatility Index has leveled off in the low to mid 20's. This is a good sign – usually nasty drops only happen once this index climbs above 30. Finally, the NYSE Arms Index closed at 1.85 on Friday – which tells me that at least a relief rally is just around the corner. Now the keys to watch (should we get this relief rally) are the following: - heavy volume - whether or not the Dow can break through its 50 day MA - more advancing issues than declining ones - decrease in the number of new lows - DECLINING INTEREST RATES If the Dow does break above its 50 day moving average on significant volume, then the worst will be over for now. However, if during any rally, the above aren't happening, then the best advice is to get the heck out of this market. This is why I started this newsletter by saying that we are at an inflection point. By the way, I can't stress enough the importance for the long bond to get back towards 6.00%. It made another run at the 6.10%+/- area late this week, but managed to settle a bit below that….but again not much breathing room. So here's the dilemma….looking forward over the next 18 months, earnings don 't look too bad…actually they look to be pretty good. So one part of me is tempted to declare that buying this dip might not be a bad idea…however, the other part of me (the technical side) is weary of the deterioration of the market internals. The newsletter portfolio has taken some positions in companies that we think are fairly priced and have the ability to participate in an overall rally and that will recover from any further market correction….ie, not be left behind after the correction. What the heck does all this mean? It looks as though we are going to get a bounce very soon. How the market behaves during the bounce will determine where we go after the bounce. [nothing like being on both sides of the fence] Paulo stockmotions.com

To: William H Huebl who wrote (42569)	8/1/1999 11:37:00 PM
From: P.Prazeres	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

remember.... exchange2000.com Paulo :-)

To: William H Huebl who wrote (42569)	8/2/1999 12:17:00 AM
From: Gersh Avery	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Hi Bill Globex opening trigger values: Buy trigger : 548 (1337.28) Sell trigger : 139 (1333.19) Note that the globex session could be positive at the open and still be within the computer sell program area. The same was true Friday but was much more pronounced that it is right now. Gersh