To: Berney who wrote (6439 ) 8/2/1999 4:25:00 AM From: MonsieurGonzo Respond to of 11051
Berney:" OEX.X " I feel kinda like John; the first "bounce op" should be right here, around ~680. This level represents two things: (1) perceived horizontal support at 690 +/-10 area ; and, (2) UpTrend Line on daily chart beginning CLOSE 03-NOV-98 through several points (try CLOSE 27-MAY-99 to get the line placed). This UpTrend is not only roughly parallel to the 200d EMA, but also parallel to a perceived UpTrend upper "channel" line drawn from CLOSE 08-JAN through CLOSE 22-APR. We are slightly below the 50d EMA and sto is rolling around in the dirt; the mo is simply drifting. Another interesting UpTrend Line, drawn from CLOSE 21-DEC-98 through close 02-MAR points to the 200d EMA as the "far target". On my OEX chart, the magic lines below the 690 +/-10 area are: 670 +/-5 648 +/-5 640 = 200d EMA ~610 area ~580 base This (first mentioned) "UpTrend Line" I was talkin' about also appears on the weekly OEX chart. Using weekly closing prices, its slope is a bit more flat; ie., we could fall to a weekly close around ~670 and the weekly version of this UpTrend would still be intact. FWIW the sto on my weekly chart, though falling steeply, indeed - "oversold" - is still around the "50" area: it's not telling me to "Load The Boat" if you know what I mean (^_^) Personally, I want to see the OEX collapse to its 200d EMA so that I can invest (buy more CORE ) from ~640 down to what? ~580?? That's what the CORE $$$ is for. Unfortunately for me, the lack of a big dip this year has discouraged me from adding to my CORE positions since last QTR-4. So this $$$ has been accumulating every month, stuffed into bondz :-( like I'm supposed to do... Waiting for Godot and going nowhere. With the lack of any real external/internal crisis - indeed, with the economy firing on all cylinders, our only criteria for "selling" is the actions of our own Fed - this decline has been marked by weird "sector rotations" so far ... ...note that the RUT.X and MID.X indices went up on wacky Friday. MID.X should find some kinda support at this 400 +/-10 area; lotsa clutter there. -Steve