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Technology Stocks : The New Qualcomm - a S&P500 company -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Art Bechhoefer who wrote (439)	8/2/1999 7:08:00 PM
From: cfoe	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13582

RE: message 439 (and 438). I agree with your conclusion and would like to offer my interpretation of what is happening with AT&T and GSM/TDMA. (The following is based on Clayton Christensen's book: The Innovator's Dilemma, which I highly recommend to all). AT&T is attempting to meet the challenge of a major disruptive innovation (CMDA) by improving its less capable service (TDMA), upon which its wireless business is based, i.e., AT&T is trying to answer a disruptive innovation (CDMA) by improving a sustaining technology (TDMA). In the short run this looks like a winning strategy to AT&T because it allows it to avoid a significant loss of its investment in TDMA. The down-side to this strategy is that in the long-term it is pouring even more resources (which even AT&T must have a limit on) into a technology that is being disrupted. This is a losing strategy! (See the above referenced book for details!) Another problem for AT&T is how long is the long-term? If recent history in technology is any indication, it is just around the corner. More bad, bad news for AT&T.