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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (48741)	8/2/1999 5:14:00 PM
From: JungleInvestor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

George, some of my posts a few months ago emphasized this very same point in forecasting $30 oil by end of the year. The two factors controlling the price of oil are: 1) supply/demand and 2) money supply. OPEC/capex cuts (supply) and renewed Asian growth (demand) are driving up the price of oil. Expect money supply growth (driven by end of '98 interest rate cuts) to kick-in within the next few months. The Fed, with reason, is closely watching the threat of inflation spurred by this money supply growth.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (48741)	8/2/1999 5:48:00 PM
From: hdrjr	Respond to of 95453

George, I have been thinking the same thing regarding the ominous outlook of the overall market. Check out this site. wwfn.com If you believe as I do that we are heading toward a similar situation as last year, where the overall market runs up too much too fast and then retraces to a more respectable level, then what is your best guess what will happen to oil and the service stocks? Is there sector rotation, which i believe or do we follow the overall market? I do not believe that an imminent drop in the overall market has much to do with the overall economy outlook. If there is a drop it will be because over valuation. With this said, I do not anticipate a companion drop in the OSX. If we do drop I do not believe it will be to the levels that Gary has predicted. We now have minor support at 75 and major support at 72ish. Both of which I can live with until more positive news comes out. Lets face it all the bad news has been released, discussed, and accounted for. As Slider has said many times, when the rig count comes up in the GOM we are home free. Last week we were up to 124 vs 119 a month earlier. offshore-data.com If and when the market crashes moderately( in the next two to three weeks), profits will be taken on a short term basis and then the money will return to the market. I believe some of the money will indeed return to our sector because of valuations and risk/reward outlooks. The above is not only my opinion but my particular gamble. hdr