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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Benkea who wrote (21813)	8/2/1999 8:31:00 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

WHAT TO EXPECT NOW. ORD ORACLE. The bigger trend is still down. On Friday the ARMS Index closed at 1.82. Closing readings over 1.30 predict a short-term low the next business day (which would be today). The "5 day ARMS" indicator closed Friday at 5.03, which is dead neutral. When the "5 day ARMS" is near "4.00" the market is usually near a high and readings near "6.00" imply the market is near a low. The "5 day ARMS" indicator takes in a longer time Frame than the closing ARMS reading. Therefore, the bigger time frame is still down, but the smaller time frame is up possibly for a day or so. Today in candlestick charting on the September S&P's, a bullish "Inverted Hammer" was drawn that coincided with a bullish minus 1000 downtick reading. This candle and bullish downtick reading may put a minor bounce in the market near to the 1360 level. On today's rally the intraday ARMS got as low as .32. Reading near .50 and lower intraday predict the market is going into an exhaustion move to the upside which implies the bounce was ending, which is did. There is a gap off the high of July 19 and another gap down from the close of July 28. When there are two gaps left open, than a lot of the time a third down gap will appear called an Exhaustion Gap and the Exhaustion Gap will mark the end of the move down. We think there is a good chance the September S&P's will produce this third and final Exhaustion gap in the near term. That will be our Que. to get out of our short position. For the moment our target is still the 1300 area. If a signal for puts is generated, we will do those too. marketweb.com