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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc ultra who wrote (7383)	8/2/1999 5:45:00 PM
From: Allan Harris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

RE: Is it the impression of others that Bob would need some type of test of the July 16th highs before possibly calling a bear or if we rolled around here around 5% or 6% below those highs that that might be adequate if fundamentals in the model deteriorate? He has always stated he would not intentionally ride out a major bear market. Therefore if the market declines 50% or anything close to that he will ride it out unintentionally unless the model turns bearish somewhere in the general vicinity of the top, which he has defined as about within five percent of the top. --Don Lane July 25, 1999 A

To: marc ultra who wrote (7383)	8/2/1999 9:17:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Marc: Re: "Is it the impression of others that Bob would need some type of test of the July 16th highs before possibly calling a bear..." I would say yes to the above at this point. Brinker's model is geared toward making any bear calling a rising market. Moreover, significant tops in the market are generally tested. Brinker is still on record for seeing a test of the highs by the end of the summer. We are in correction mode here. And as Brinker has stated if we get a good correction it could postpone any bear call. I think 1994 was a similar market at least up to this point. We would get around 10% correction at every turn where a rate rise seemed to be around the corner. I think Brinker is evaluating this correction to see if it might sustain the bull. Re: "... or if we rolled around here around 5% or 6% below those highs that that might be adequate if fundamentals in the model deteriorate?" Hard to imagine many of the indicators going anywhere but to the favorable column if this kind of environment continues. But I suppose it is possible although not probable.