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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don Green who wrote (26238)	8/3/1999 1:45:00 AM
From: richard surckla	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

>>Beware of the Darkside of "the Force"<< Gees Don, I warned you to see a psychiatrist in one of my recent posts. Run... don't walk!

To: Don Green who wrote (26238)	8/4/1999 3:35:00 AM
From: Dave B	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 93625

Don, So you actually believe there is such a thing as the Random Walk? I didn't get back to you on this one yesterday. Yes, absolutely. The easiest way to prove that it is is for anyone who thinks it's not a random walk to tell me where Rambus will close tomorrow. Or the day after. Or in a week. If you can't tell me tomorrow's price, then there must be a random element involved. Five days of random price movements makes up a random price movement for a week. Where will Rambus be one week from now? Four random weeks makes up a random month. Where will we be in one month? Down 10%? Up 10%? Up 20%? Do you think it'll go down tomorrow? What if Rambus announces a new design win? Or the market just suddenly decides it's a day to explode? Or a new competitor appears? Do you think it'll go up? What if Stuart decides there are bigger fish in the ocean and sells his holdings? None of those are foreseeable events. How do you factor in that the manager of fund XYZ finishes his burrito and decides that he needs 100,000 more shares of Rambus? On a more "scientific" basis, however, I'll be happy to sit down with anyone who thinks the market is not a random walk, we'll grab some Valueline charts, I'll cover up some portion of the right side and I'll let you tell me exactly what the stock will do in whatever time frame you choose. I don't believe anyone can do it on a consistent basis. I do believe that you might be able to make statements like "$X is a support level" though you won't be able to tell me if the stock retested that level, or "$Y is a resistance level" without being able to tell me if or when that level was breached. You might cite certain "stock formations", but you won't be able to say with any certainty what happened to the stock after that formation was reached. You might quote probabilities, but then you're just agreeing that it's random. There are too many extraneous factors that affect a stocks price. Absolutely it's a random walk. If it's not, could someone please publish the closing prices for each of the next 30 days so I could time some transactions accordingly? I'd be happy to daytrade under those circumstances. TIA. <G> Dave