Honduras Haunted by Ghosts of its Past
Summary:
Honduran President Carlos Flores Facusse made changes in the
uppermost level of the military hierarchy on July 30 amid rumors
of an attempted coup d'etat. While it is Stratfor's view that
Latin America has the greatest potential for growth of any region
in the world for the coming decade, this does not mean all of
Latin America will benefit equally. Venezuela spent the last
year reeling from low oil prices, its most important commodity,
and responded by electing a populist president with populist
solutions that have yet to turn the economy around despite rising
oil prices. Ecuador also faces economic difficulties, which has
led to domestic unrest and the potential for the return of a
former populist president. Chile is doing a delicate balancing
act with its military vis-a-vis the arrest of General Augusto
Pinochet in Britain on charges of torture. And Honduras is
dealing with the threatened return of a specter from its past --
the iron fisted rule of the military.
Analysis:
Honduran President Carlos Flores Facusse sacked four senior
military commanders on July 30. The official Honduran government
position argues that the recent reshuffling of the Honduran
military was prompted by insubordination on the part of senior
military officials. President Flores relieved Vice Minister of
Civil Defense Brigadier General Roberto Lazarus Lozano, Joint
Chief of Staff of the Honduran Armed Forces Colonel Eugenio
Romero Euceda, Inspector General Colonel Jorge Alberto Puerto,
and the number two man in the military Colonel Guillermo Linares
of their duties. While Minister of Civil Defense Edgardo Dumas
was out of the country, Romero and a group of other military
officers replaced the Army Chief of Operations and the head of
the Honduran Counter-Intelligence branch. On his return to
Honduras, Dumas ordered Romero to reverse the changes. Romero
refused to comply with Dumas' order, leading to last week's
shake-up in the military leadership.
Last week's changes took place against a backdrop of speculation
that a coup was being attempted. In May, Dumas warned against
the possibility of a coup, and Flores made similar remarks in
June, warning coup plotters not to attempt to overthrow his
government. Last week both Telenisa Canal 63 and the Mexican
Notimex news agency reported that there was a possible coup in
the works. Judging by the heavy security surrounding the
presidential palace and the fact that the president's helicopter
was reportedly on standby all day on July 30, there are grounds
to believe that a coup was in the works. Interestingly, military
music was reportedly broadcast on radio stations in Honduras,
reminiscent of previous coups. However, Flores denied that a
coup was attempted. Either way, the scene last week in Honduras
certainly appeared to be that of a coup.
In related matters, Telenisa Canal 63 reported on July 30 that
Honduran military personnel contacted Venezuelan President Hugo
Chavez Frias as well as influential segments of Honduran society
in regards to overthrowing Flores. If true, this is a
potentially explosive situation for both Chavez and Honduras. It
is unclear what proof Telenisa Canal 63 has of the alleged
meeting between the Honduran military and Chavez. Furthermore,
even if the meeting did take place, there is no evidence that
Chavez was willing to help the coup plotters. Stratfor notes
that while Chavez staged a coup in 1992, it failed. Surely there
must be better people to go to for advice on staging a coup.
After warning of a possible coup earlier this year, and calling
out extra security on July 30, Flores denied that there was a
coup attempt. Regardless of whether a coup was attempted or not,
it at least appeared possible. If there wasn't a coup attempt or
the threat of one, why beef up security? If there wasn't a coup,
or no threat of one, why put on the show? It is conceivable that
the appearance of a threat to the status quo was necessary in
order for Flores to tighten his control over the military.
Flores and Dumas have warned against the possibility of a coup
since late spring and early summer. The curtailing of the
military's influence earlier this year and Dumas' appointment as
the first civilian head of the military created tension between
the government and the military. In May, Dumas opened an
investigation on Romero and other officers that Dumas claimed
were plotting against him. After creating such a furor over the
possibility of the military staging a coup, and the appearance of
one either underway or in the works last week, it is possible
that last week's changes were made in order to rein in the
military. With the country facing what at least looked like a
coup, Flores had justification for making the changes that he
did. Control over the military machine in Honduras is an
important challenge facing Flores. If Flores hopes to be at the
helm to lead his country out of its current economic crisis
following Hurricane Mitch last year, he must keep his military
chiefs in line.
It is Stratfor's contention that Latin America is poised to be an
engine of global economic growth in the next decade. That does
not mean that all of Latin America will share equally in that
growth. Specters of the region's past continue to plague
individual countries. When its economy was staggered by low oil
prices, Venezuela responded by electing a populist. His social
policies and their impact on the economy have not yet been
evident, as he continues to lay the groundwork for constitutional
change. Ecuador, struggling to meet the economic restructuring
goals set by international lenders, has been wracked by civil
unrest and may be seeing the return of a populist leader from its
past.
While the appeal of inevitably short term populist solutions to
long term economic problems is threatening to hold back the
economic development of some Latin American governments, the
return of former military juntas threatens others. The civilian
government in Honduras is fighting to rein in its military
commanders and the civilian government in Chile is faced with a
delicate balancing act over the arrest in Britain of former
military leader General Augusto Pinochet. The Chilean government
is stuck arguing for Pinochet's extradition, in order to appease
Pinochet's military supporters. At the same time it would prefer
not to have the general back before the elections, since finding
him not guilty would undermine the government's civilian support
while convicting the general would risk a backlash from the
military.
Populists, juntas and guerrillas, oh my! Peru is continuing to
clean up the remnants of its guerrilla problems. Colombian
President Andres Pastrana, struggling as much with his own
government, the military, and the U.S. government as with rebels,
seeks to strike a peace accord with the FARC. And there have
been hints that Guatemala's rebel movement may be resurfacing as
that country tries to recover from Hurricane Mitch. Latin
America may be poised to take over from Asia economically, but it
continues to be haunted by the ghosts of its past.
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