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Strategies & Market Trends : REITS - Buying 1 - 2 weeks before going ex-dividend -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bob Rudd who wrote (1428)	8/3/1999 5:44:00 PM
From: Richard Barron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2561

Bob, I have spoke to Lee at ETT a few times and agree that he is very low key and seems to give conservative, accurate information. He told me about the VTR structure having excessively high rents which would drain VC about 4 months ago right after VTR tanked from 10 towards 4. He explained that GHV was a lot more solid and had some cash reserves also. I like the recent news, and I did buy another 25% position today at the open. Tony, I don't know what the market will do with HRP short term, but the spinoff will leave behind an office REIT which is now about 2/3 of the book value. If the office portion gets a normal REIT multiple, there is a decent amount of room for appreciation. My best bet is hoping CEI gets all the way down to 20, and I will load up with some options on the 20 calls. I refuse to believe that CEI will stay this low for more than a month. Richard

To: Bob Rudd who wrote (1428)	8/12/1999 3:43:00 PM
From: Bob Rudd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2561

HRPT (HRP) is currently yielding 11.4% presumably because oh health care exposure. Actual exposure to health care is 25%. The balance is decent quality offices. To unlock the value, HRP is spinning off the health care to shareholders Yahoo - HRPT Announces Revised Spin Off Plan biz.yahoo.com According to the 7/30 NAREIT survey, the average office REIT yields 7% and the average health care reit yields 10.7%. If the spinoff succeeds in getting segments of currently neither fish nor foul HRP to be percieved as pure plays and yield revert to mean for sectors, what impact does that have on the price of the package? Looks to my simple mind that 50% increase is in the works IF the market awards average yields: Spinoff Div HC 2.40 HC avg div yld 10.7% Hc Implied price 22.49 Spinoff Div HRP OFF 1.28 Office avg Div Yld 7.0% Off Implied price 18.18 Yeild Implied value 20.43 [1 Off + .1 HC spinoff shares] Current HRP price 13.38 Expected increase 152.8% Same info with more pessimistic implied yield assumptions in later 2 columns BASE WORSE WORST Spinoff Div HC 2.40 2.40 2.40 HC avg div yld 10.7% 15.0% 20.0% Hc Implied price 22.49 16.00 12.00 Spinoff Div HRP OFF 1.28 1.28 1.28 Office avg Div Yld 7.0% 7.0% 9.0% Off Implied price 18.18 18.18 14.22 Yeild Implied value 20.43 19.78 15.42 Current HRP price 13.38 13.38 13.38 Expected increase 152.8% 147.9% 115.3% Took a position today @ 13 3/8 Thoughts comments....? bob