To: engineer who wrote (466 ) 8/3/1999 12:53:00 PM From: John Stichnoth Respond to of 13582
are you willing to go pay up to Sprint, Airtouch, or Leap an amount of $50M I already am, kind of. I hold some DSL equipment maker stock (PAIR; not too good so far :o( ), and have signed up for an IPO next week--DSL.net, which does similar things to Covad and Northpoint, although they are rolling out ADSL, while DSL.net will apparently use HDSL2. DSL.net's IPO should provide them with $100MM, twice what you are asking for.<g> My point is that higher bandwidth is being rolled out, both in the form of cable access and DSL. And I don't disagree with you. I think I am implying in the earlier post two things: 1. There is demand there for lots more bandwidth, and 2. Perhaps, a discontinuous technology is coming that will present a real problem to the incumbent ISP's and their open standards, if they don't move first. It may for instance be a proprietary format for encoding/decoding TV signals and movies (ie., content), that would be controlled by one giant ISP (ATT? ugh! Sony? AOL?) that would allow one company to gain a huge advantage in internet access provision. Or, it may be a proprietary way of delivering that content. By the way, while the dsl providers' equipment is supposed to be interoperable, my understanding is that most is not. An ipo being priced tonight, for instance, states that they rely on acceptance of Copper Mountain's technology by the isp's. The more apps that develop using Copper Mountain, the more their proprietary stuff will give them "gorilla" power. On content, Sony, for instance, might develop a set-top box with hard drive with space to handle 12 hours of movies (TiVO? It's already here!). This has limited attractiveness right now, because it takes so long to download something (and if your connection drops in the middle, do you end up paying twice to get the movie?). Sony might sell their box to be used in conjunction with only one or several ISP's. That would give that ISP a huge advantage in marketing and market share. There is some infrastructure that would have to accompany such a rollout. The ISP's must have whatever dslams/encoders/whatever in place to offer the service. The existing dsl providers and @home are rolling this out as fast as they can, just to satisfy existing demand. They're not really focusing on that next step. Yet. I believe that wireless (read : CDMA) can play in this market. Of course, if it takes too long, some of the initial potential market may already have been taken.