I don't know if BT is using NN's ADSL (more likely ALA's), but I do know wherever there's highspeed access, there has to be highspeed ATM switching. And in spite of ALA's lead in ADSL, I also know NN's access sales have been, and I quote, "coming out our ears."
August 02, 1999 13:11
-ONLINE RESEARCH AGENCY: Online Research Agency forecasts rapid take-up of BT ADSL
M2 PRESSWIRE-2 August 1999-ONLINE RESEARCH AGENCY: Online Research Agency forecasts rapid take-up of BT ADSL (C)1994-99 M2 COMMUNICATIONS LTD
Responding to the news that BT will be rolling out its ADSL service across major UK cities by next March, the Online Research Agency has forecast a rapid take-up of services offering the ADSL option.
"BT will alter the Internet landscape with their new offering," said Nick Rosen, Research Director of the Online Research Agency.
"People will be able to enjoy the Internet much more. With ADSL it will no longer be possible to dismiss the Internet as the World Wide Wait," said Rosen. Services like Videonet's video-on-demand will also drive up subscriber numbers.
The Online Agency predicts there will be 140,000 subscribers by the time the rollout is completed next May, and over 500,000 users by the end of 2000. The subscriber base will be divided 75-25 between SMEs and wealthier home users. Retail costs will be between GBP 48 per month for households taking a basic Internet connection to GBP 200 per month for businesses subscribing to a sophisticated premium service.
The 140,000 subscribers forecast will represent only about 2% of all Internet subscriptions.
Table 1
Date ADSL subscribers
August 1999 1,500 November 1999 18,000 February 2000 62,000 May 2000 140,000 August 2000 262,000 November 2000 489,000
"Freeserve shifted the Internet landscape by bringing a new generation of users online and changing the economics of Internet service provision," said Rosen, "That was less than a year ago but it already looks like ancient history. In the long run the Freeserve model may itself be threatened by ADSL which will herald a return to the subscription model at least in the short term."
It is estimated that traditional ISPs lost about 22% of their subscribers to free ISPs in the last year; and the free ISPs have increased the overall market by about 11%; free ISPs now have about 43% market share. As a result several key players including BT, Virgin, MSN and MCI/Worldcom were forced to re-evaluate their existing business models in the UK and elsewhere.
Table 2: Subscriber Numbers
ISP July 1998 April 1999 Freeserve -- 1,600,000 AOL 470,000 530,000 CompuServe 340,000 380,000 MSN 125,000 110,000 Demon 160,000 160,000 VirginNet 100,000 190,000 BT Internet 100,000 180,000 UUNET Pipex Dial 70,000 80,000 Global Internet 58,000 110,000 LineOne 16,000 140,000 EasyNet 39,000 74,000 Cable Internet 33,000 41,000 Which?Online 29,000 83,000 Direct Connection 24,000 42,000 U-net 24,000 33,000 Netcom 18,000 45,000 CIX 14,000 16,000 Other 750,000 1,200,000 Total 2,370,000 5,014,000
Source Online Research Agency 1999
Table 3: Market Share
ISP July 1998 April 1999
Freeserve - 31.9 % AOL 19.8 % 10.6 % CompuServe 14.3 % 7.6 % MSN 5.3 % 2.2 % Demon 6.8 % 3.2 % VirginNet 4.2 % 3.8 % BT Internet 4.2 % 3.6 % UUNET Pipex Dial 3.0 % 1.6 % Global Internet 2.4 % 2.2 % LineOne 0.7 % 2.8 % EasyNet 1.6 % 1.5 % Cable Internet 1.4 % 0.8 % Which?Online 1.2 % 1.6 % Direct Connection 1.0 % 0.8 % U-net 1.0 % 0.7 % Netcom 0.8 % 0.9 % CIX 0.6 % 0.3 % Other 31.2 % 23.9 %
Source Online Agency 1999 |
