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Strategies & Market Trends : Russia/Templeton Russia Fund (TRF) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SgtPepper who wrote (78)	8/9/1999 2:28:00 PM
From: Daniel Shaffer	Respond to of 94

Buying on Dips Hi, Sgt. I agree with you. Russia will never go back to Communism and there's a lot of Russian "flight capital" sitting in banks in Cyprus, New York, and London. If and when the investment climate improves, that money will start coming back as happened during the last decade in Latin America. The only question is when Russia will get its act together in terms of creating a stable political-economic environment that makes investors comfortable. This means, among other things, reduced official corruption and the enforcement of commercial codes and contracts.

To: SgtPepper who wrote (78)	8/10/1999 11:51:00 AM
From: Daniel Shaffer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94

Parade of Prime Ministers Bodes Ill Hi,Sgt. Yeltsin's latest replacement of Prime Ministers (the 5th time in 18 months or so) suggests there won't be much positive change in the near future. The consensus is that almost everyone in Russia is disgusted with Yeltsin and his "family" of insiders. Elections for the Duma are coming up later this year with presidential elections in another year or so. My read on this is that little will be accomplished over the next 18 months in terms of needed financial, tax, judicial, and other reforms (including reining in official corruption). As a consequence, unless the Asian economic recovery or increases in energy prices significantly boost Russia's exports, Russian stocks will remain in the doldrums ($9 - $15 for TRF) until sometime after the next presidential elections in Russia. At that point, it depends on who is elected and how successfully they are in implementing reforms. Buying TRF in this range, IMO, makes sense if one is prepared to be very patient or just interested in buying on bad news and selling on increases of $3 - $5 per share over the foreseeable future.