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Technology Stocks : USWeb (USWB) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: John D. Morrison who wrote (1089)8/3/1999 4:06:00 PM
From: JakeStraw  Respond to of 1188
 
Personally I don't forsee USWB going below $15....



To: John D. Morrison who wrote (1089)8/3/1999 4:36:00 PM
From: Rick  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1188
 
been thinking alot about USWB lately. i have been having a long running battle in my mind that goes something like this:

its overvalued, services not a very secure or leveraged way to make money, daytraders and young thrill seeking males are attracted to it (great fodder for the street!), there are way too many shares outstanding, BUT......

BUT, I really think Shaw has the talent to build a strong company. He is smart enough to know that the continued acquisitions would kill the stock. So, what is his angle and how can I make money from it ?

My answers:

1. I think he's in it for the long haul. I think he may be one of the small handful of CEOs that have a long term vision and the operational skills to build a company toward that vision.

2. He is smart enough to know that an excessively high stock price is an invitation to missed expectations.

3. He also knows that a volatile stock can wreak havoc on recruiting and the doling out of incentive based options. Creates an unstable environment where nobody want options priced while the stock is unsustainably high.

4. Perhaps more grave to the companies future, though, is the potential creation of a culture of immediate gratification from stock gains. If the stock remains too overvalued, what is the incentive for the acquirees and options loaded employees to actually do the hard work of building a stable company ? If he allowed the stock to remain too overvalued, he might have been faced with alot of talent and acquirees taking the money and running before the real heavy lifting gets done. Certainly, the early insiders and investors have not been poster children for long term investing.

I am beginning to come around to the idea that USWB could be a good long term investment, especially if it keeps falling. I would be pretty enthusiastic about 15 to 18 per share.

I think the bottom line on Shaws approach is that in addition to using the highly valued stock to acquire growth, he is simultaneously damping down the stock to more realistic levels, and getting the additional benefit of forcing the USWB insiders into a long term investors mentality.

I certainly don't think USWB is going to shoot up anytime soon, but it may just be a good long term investment. Shaw is definitely impressive and I wouldn't want to bet against him at the current stock price. And I am starting to sway in the direction of betting with him.

for what its worth.

rick.