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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bearshark who wrote (21927)	8/3/1999 7:27:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 99985

Bearshark, i have a similar idea - a bottom around the time you mention, followed by a rally that fails to set new highs and then a brutal correction. of course i am prepared to modify that stance if warranted by new developments, but i believe that this view is in tune not only with technicals but also with fundamentals, since the next PPI and CPI data will capture the rise in oil and gas prices. the FOMC meeting on August 24 may well set the stage for a relief rally once again; whether that rally will be a headfake or not is a bit early to say (although i already said it<g>), as it depends partly on the FOMC's actual decision. the deterioration in market internals will become harder to ignore as time goes on. i have looked at past a/d line and NH/NL divergences, and while they can go on for some time, they always are eventually resolved by sharp declines in the indices. this time is different in the sense that indexation may have a lot to do with the divergences, which has allowed them to persist for longer than usual. but i am still convinced that the standard outcome can be counted on - unless we're in a new era<g>. regards, hb

To: bearshark who wrote (21927)	8/3/1999 7:30:00 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Bearshark, With my short-term analysis I also work with short-term cycles and right now the cycles are now approximately 15 trading days. Per my short-term analysis I have CLASS 1 BUYs which implies a short-term bottom, regardless of the price action. Counting 15 trading days from today, I get AUG 23 for the next short-term bottom. It is just an estimate, and as we get closer to that date I use the short-term technicals to narrow the timing down. seeya