To: Caxton Rhodes who wrote (516 ) 8/3/1999 11:33:00 PM From: Maurice Winn Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 13582
Caxton, I don't have the Telecom New Zealand Limited details yet for their cdmaOne rollout, which will be sooner rather than later. But just as Telecom couldn't goof around waiting for 3G VW40 to maybe, or maybe not, turn to reality, NTT can't wait around for it either. A lot will happen in Japan between now and March 2001 when NTT claims to think they'll launch their VW40 network. For a start, the cdmaOne service providers will get a LOT of market share. Then, VW40 has to actually work and we have all seen how much fun it has been for Motorola, Nokia and others to come up with workable solutions for cdmaOne despite nearly 10 years working on it. They have failed, right up until today. They still depend on Qualcomm for ASICs and software. Between now and 2002, which is a more likely date for NTT's 3G, Q! will continue to race ahead with cdmaOne, cdma2000, HDR, MSM5000 developments. Why on earth would NTT want to go with some half-baked concatenated, convoluted VW40 system with a wonky chip rate and maybe or maybe not synchronized with a jittery image or whatever little glitches Ericy and the W-CDMA proponents suffer, when they could go straight to cdma2000, swept up, fast, cheap and in demand from millions of subscribers? What is the benefit to NTT to cross their fingers and hope that W-CDMA can be made to work competitively with cdma2000? I don't get it. Telecom New Zealand has decided to fold their hand and go with cdmaOne with a clear, competitive upgrade path to 3G via cdma2000. NTT will be fun to watch over the next year or so as will the cdmaOne growth rate in Japan. I expect that Ericy will tell NTT that they should go with cdmaOne from Lusk Boulevard, just as Telecom NZ is going to do [it still might be Lucent or Motorola but I bet it isn't since Ericy is the main Telecom supplier and Ericy is desperate for some cdmaOne action]. Mqurice PS: While UMTS, SETI, NTT and all the bureaucrats fluster around trying to get a 3G standard harmonized but with exclusionary technicalities, Qualcomm is charging ahead with cdma2000, creating a defacto standard. Competition is such fun [when winning].