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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ed who wrote (27837)	8/4/1999 2:08:00 AM
From: Sir Francis Drake	Respond to of 74651

ed - if you are going to make comments to me, please try to be accurate. Go dig up my posts. Here is the REALITY of what I wrote. First, at the time MSFT reached a high in April of 94 (95) intraday, I posted that I thought MSFT will now sell off: Message 8828215 <<The second reason MSFT could sell off is purely technical. It has tried several times to break and hold through 95. After 3 tries, that resistance is firming up. What that means, is that it will now head down, having failed to go up. Add to that tax season adjustments before April 15, the fact that the market has run up and is short term overbought, and CPQ could give a good reason for a pretty solid correction. People will take money off the table. I don't see how MSFT can go up in this environment.>> Was it a correct call? Was it timely - right at the high, when others (ahem) had visions of 115-120 dancing in their heads? Next, the post where the numbers 67 1/2 and 74 were first mentioned, on April 21: Message 9056255 <<At this point, MSFT is a conservative, good growth stock, but don't look for 100% yearly gains from now on. As I said before - it wouldn't shock me, if we have already seen most of MSFT's appreciation. We'll probably break 95 this year, but I'm not looking for much more. In the short term, I see MSFT trending down. There is very solid support at 74, and it really should not fall below 67 1/2. I don't think it'll stay down for very long, but it will be awhile before it heads into the 90s again. I see it as range-bound.>> I did say it would probably break 95 this year - which it did, short term it did trend down, it had "very solid support" at 74 - which it never even tested (the lowest it went was 75 intraday). Remember, on April 21 MSFT was still in the 80's - so to call for "very solid support" at 74 was a good call. But did I mean to imply that MSFT will definitely see 67 1/2 at that time? Message 9319124 <<Actually, as long as MSFT does not break 67 1/2 (which I really don't forsee, short of some huge general market calamity), I think this retreat will be very healthy for MSFT. Even a decline to 74, and as low as 67 1/2, is good consolidation. I'm very, very pleased from a longer point of view. MSFT is moving up in a sustainable way, and that is very important. The p/e may decline somewhat, but I say, you will be very happy to hold MSFT in the year 2000. We will go up, significantly next year. I'll go out on a limb, and project 140s April 2000 - from everything that I see, this is not too wild a projection.>> That post was written on May 4, when MSFT hit 77 intraday - so to say that 74 was "very solid support" was a good call. And look at that post - the 67 1/2 was simply mentioned as a very important support level - breaking which "I really don't forsee, short of some huge general market calamity". Note that at that time, I also set the target of $140 by April 2K. Subsequently, I called for a decline from the recent high of 99-100, and I have played MSFT short on an intraday basis. I cover my shorts at the end of the day. My position has not changed since I've enunciated it. I still see extremely strong support at 67 1/2 - which would only be tested under extreme market conditions. Very strong support exists at 74 - it is still possible, IMO, that it could be tested this year. My target for MSFT is still $140 by April 2K. I've stated the same position for months now, and I believe it was accurate and timely, not with the benefit of hindsight. Now that I straightened out the record, you can go on ranting. Morgan