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To: Rarebird who wrote (38286)	8/4/1999 5:34:00 AM
From: Bobby Yellin	Respond to of 116768

Hi Rarebird: I am with you re Japan but my timeframe is a bit longer out than yours. I think we have gotten to the point when the US and others are going to make a concerted effort to get the Japanese economy rolling or else it is curtains.. It is fascinating..the aging population of Japanese..who is going to spend the money..I still am giggling at the thought ofseeing more and more financial people going to Japan and spending spending spending.. I am also beginning to think that finally the world leaders are going to put in place global rules against leverage plays.. at this point, I think Greenspan and company realize that leverages work against the health of the world economies rather than focussing maybe on the liquidity they provide to the market-Comments

To: Rarebird who wrote (38286)	8/4/1999 6:00:00 AM
From: Bobby Yellin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116768

biz.yahoo.com is there a contradiction in that?

To: Rarebird who wrote (38286)	8/4/1999 7:47:00 AM
From: Rarebird	Respond to of 116768

To: VBroady (28064 ) ( On AOL Thread ) From: Rarebird Wednesday, Aug 4 1999 7:44AM ET Reply # of 28075 The Dollar is Dying a Slow Death and so are US Equities and Bonds. All Rallies in these Markets are now a Major Opportunity to Sell. Lower Highs And Lower Lows; Repeated failed rallies: This is what the Bulls have to look forward to NOW. Frustration building upon Frustration. It is the early stages of a Bear Market. This is not the panic of last summer/fall. It is a slow grinding decline. The Bears are now playing with and challenging the Polyannas most deeply held Bullish beliefs: " I'll never sell my AOL." "AOL will recover and surge to new highs." Now will it? Are you sure? The fact of the matter is that every 20 years or so, we get a major sea change in regard to these Markets: 1966-1982: Bull Market in commodities and a Bear Market in Stocks 1982-1999: Bear Market in commodities and a Bull Market in Stocks A major inflection point may very well have been reached here again. Commodities have begun to rally very strongly here as the US stock and Bond Markets have become Bearish. Nothing lasts forever. At some point in the cycle, these stocks do not come back for a very very long time. Ignoring History is one of the greatest errors of Mankind!

To: Rarebird who wrote (38286)	8/4/1999 9:34:00 AM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116768

I don't see new lows for Japan. Perhaps at the very worst, a solid retest of the old lows and then a bull market. Rarebird, Have you looked at how low the Nikkei would have to go to retrace and perform a "solid retest" of the old lows??? finance.yahoo.com^N225&d=2y Yes, that would be 13,122 reached just last year. Or close to a 35-40% retracement. So let's see... Last Oct, both the Nikkei and Dow are being pummeled in the process. Greenspan lower rates in response to LTCM and floods the system with liquidity. Both markets go up. Now why would Japan's market rise along with of the US?? Could it be our ability and willingness to absorb their exports upon which they rely upon from economic growth? Hmmmm....... And if the US economy is intentionally slowed down by Greenspan, who will buy those Japanese goods?? Who will support the Japanese economy? How will they get that Yen/Dollar exchange rate down? Japan may well get a bull market after hitting those lows, but I'll wager they'll get it AFTER they have devalued their currency. The difference between the US and Japanese economies is the difference between push and pull. Japan has been pulled along by the US. As we weaken ourselves deliberately, they are weakened even more because no one is pulling them along, assisting them in avoiding the painful economic decisions that they have to make. Regards, Ron