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Strategies & Market Trends : The Rational Analyst -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gcrieff who wrote (1628)	8/4/1999 12:35:00 PM
From: HeyRainier	Respond to of 1720

Coving, Thanks for the heads up. I thought I recalled seeing that trading system being built by the same programmers for the Pitbull Trader. Impressions from others, however, are not impressive. Ask yourself this: if you had such a great system, why would you want others to implement it and take away opportunities that you yourself could capitalize on? E*TRADE asked essentially the same question today in an advertisement: if your broker is so good, how come he has to come to work every day? I believe the same would apply for technicians: if I found a great indicator, it would be in my best interests to keep the details of such an indicator to myself. Over-adoption of a technical indicator usually spells disaster, not to mention reduced profit opportunities. Just some thoughts to ponder. But in any case, I have recently become freed of constraints that allow me more flexibility in my trading. I used that development to capitalize on an exit strategy for one of my core trading holdings. The timing was rather opportune--now I have ammo for the market. But first, I would like to see greater signs of capitulation. Right now, worries are mounting in the market. As a long term buyer of securities, I like the opportunities this affords me. --Rainier

To: gcrieff who wrote (1628)	8/4/1999 2:46:00 PM
From: HeyRainier	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1720

Coving, Generally, I like the tone of the market...from a short's perspective. Here's another little indicator I like to use before getting defensive: the Prudent Bear Fund. The symbol is BEARX. This has had a nice little uptick recently, and if you are able to plot its historical NAV's, you'll note that every single time it closed above the 21 week moving average, it had a tendency to spike up a tad. This movement was inversely correlated with the broad markets, meaning that as BEARX spiked, the market weakened considerably. I'm showing that as of yesterday, the fund closed above its 21 week moving average for the first time since August 14, 1998, the signal that got you on the right side of the market as it collapsed in October. BEARX spiked from $6.15 NAV to a high of $9.51, and the market suffered correspondingly. With these yields on the 30-year treasuries in uncomfortable territory, there's that increasing potential for market P/E's to compress further. In any case, prudence would appear to dictate a more defensive stance in this current environment. ...Now that I think about it, I wonder how this chart would look like with a Fibonacci-based market cycle overlayed on the charts. Think I'll do that when I get back home... --Rainier