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Technology Stocks : S3 (A LONGER TERM PERSPECTIVE) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Herc who wrote (13469)	8/5/1999 9:37:00 AM
From: BobInBush	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14577

ANother play to look at is the Flash Memory makers. Flash is in demand and the supply is tight. Some real bargins out there like CATS.

To: Herc who wrote (13469)	8/5/1999 10:02:00 PM
From: SBHX	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14577

OT : Flash RAM & SNDK. I just got the SNDK USB CF reader. I measured sustained rd and wr speeds of about 600KB/s. Don't know what parallel port speed is. onsale.com The thing really behaves like another removeable drive. It even works off a USB hub shared among multiple devices. Wiliam J. O'Neil's book "How to make money in stocks" describes a simple method for picking stocks that is very close to what I've been following recently. The key is to pick companies that are profitable and have YoY earnings increases of at least 25% each quarter. See Page20 : Some High P/Es that Were Cheap and : Don't sell High P/E stocks short IMHO, the highest risk comes from staying too long in companies that are unable to turn a profit for 5 quarters or more. Sometimes, you get lucky (like people who bought SIII at $2), but if SIII did not have the UMC investment, things will look very different. Hence I still feel that this is an anomaly, and I still stay away from companies that are not profitable. It's ok to speculate with mad money, and buy a little, but it better be money you won't miss if it halves... Sandisk's P/E may be high, but if you look at the explosive growth of digital cameras, or you believe in mp3 players or winCE machines, then the potential growth is very very clear. Digicams is still in it's infancy. How many films are sold every year? A good comparison of a company with an interesting product might be RIMM, but even then I doubt if RIMM's potential market is even 1/10th of SNDK's. If you look at earnings growth of the following, they fit O'Neil's criteria : biz.yahoo.com biz.yahoo.com here's some stocks that don't fit the same criteria : biz.yahoo.com biz.yahoo.com DIMD is wildly out. Look at the -3100% surprise in the june 99 Q. SIII earnings history has not shown the same 25% over 5 Qs that is required by O'Neil, but you really can't tell yet. Next Q might be a blowout, but DIMD might be a drag on profits for a while, so I doubt that the next Q will be +ve. To buy SIII, one has to look at the other stuff : UMC holdings, how the DIMD purchase is carved up, stock dilution, which divisions are sold or closed down. It's really complicated. Selling the RIO / RIOport.com for a ton of cash would change the picture, but even then you'd wonder, will operations ever ever turn a profit in the next 12 months? As for risk :: my personal philosophy is that once I click on the [confirm order] button, I'm hoping to make a decent return, but I am prepared to lose all of it. O/W I'll end up like the crazed gunman in atlanta. Secret to a long and happy life : never gamble with money you can't live without. :-) What a wild ride today. Eh?