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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ronald J. Clark who wrote (48813)	8/4/1999 11:34:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

TMR is a no brainer longterm; but ??? I agree with the upside drilling prospects - and the increases in cash flow/production etc - but; I would think that the 2 brokerage houses would have a handle of the usual blowout capping timeframe, costs - impact etc. They have not upgraded - may shortly; if so this does run to $6-7 - agreed. I am not knocking TMR at all ! This is a buy & hold dream. Just from a trading perspective, or seeking another new re-entry for me; I just saw a 36,000 sale - downtick 10:32 am @ $4 1/16... couple of sellers at the open etc. - from a pure trading perspective; this is interesting because I am curious to see how much profit taking there is here today on a +10% day; and this also drives home the non-institutional involvement/influence factor as TMR is below the $5 fund floor etc... just an interesting stock to watch today... I agree a tic over $4 is still a good fill; I just want to buy it real right... For me; I have a couple of 10% retracers - RRC now 10% less than where I sold it & nearly 40% from its recent high - so I am buying & re-loading RRC again today - getting all my fills now @ $ 5 9/16's - now throwing out limit buys @ $5 3/16th - as $5 1/2 has been solid support - and if it bases here - it runs to $7 again off of what I expect to be a good earnings release. But, if it breaks under support - I start buying at $5 3/16ths - say $4 7/8ths etc... I will chase ''this one'' down as low as they want to take it.. A great trader here... CRK looks to slowly climb to $5 - if it does & the company has given guidance to analysts on their future hedging plans - once these sub market price hedges come off in Oct; then this could run like a banshee - as the funds will be able to buy over $5. In my thinking as a trader - I'll let the market have the $4 1/8th to $5 range; I am a buyer sub $4 1/8th - and also if it breaks out over $5 - because of the factor that mutual funds & Institutions can they buy it as a stock over $5.... just my thoughts... This fight for sector sentiment - Barrons disses the supply numbers & the price of crude; all the storage number allegations; now brokers upgrade the drillers etc... very interesting. For ''Trading'' - reacting to the market influences is the key; for buy & holding - buying retracements and not the run ups; selling the run ups & not capitulating on the retracements is the key.... This is a key transition point for the sector. I still do not see the next quarter, or two being fundamentally strong enough to take the OSX over 10% higher from here... These mid cap E&P's have 20% swings here all most accross the board. For every breakout candidate that I may miss - from selling/taking profits on a run up; ie: CRK - I have an alternative like RRC who has sold off again to the bottom of support - so I may miss a re-entry into CRK; but I am ''stealing'' RRC imho; poised for another 20% to 40% chipshot - yes, a literal chip shot ! I just can not own 12-15+ stocks here, like I used to. The sector does not possess the fundamentals of rig counts, dayrates, new orders, new projects to support more than say 10-15% upside imho. I am getting these 15%+ upsides all most weekly in 4-5-6 stocks ! I HAVE to be a trader in just a limited amount of stocks... this is working - and it is not that complex, sophisticated or risky - it has been like sitting on a stool with a Remington .22 and knocking off gophers in the back yard.... ping, ping, ping.... how many do you want ???? good trading... this is real interesting here - the strongest and most divided battle between long & shorts that I can remember here. Both present good fundamental & technical arguements - tough call imho. I'm just going to take these rolling trading ranges in these individual stocks for what has been a regular 10, 15, 20% swing & trade 'em on an individual stock basis... It's killing me that I will be gone next week, in what looks to be potentially a Turning Point in the sector... just going to have to use limit & stops orders... PS- anyone paranoid enough here to think that these upgrades are for the Street to sell into & trim positions going into the traditional August Blow off ? Trimming positions prior to a technical correction in crude prices ? ... Imho; if the Longs are to control the sector - we MUST see $3+ breakouts in SLB HAL & BHI within 2 weeks... if not; it aint for real imho.... just my usual .02 cents .... Only own RRC here... trying to re- buy TMR, MEXP, not close in CRK yet... I aint going to buy in the high $4's here - then watch the Street sell it off post earnings release back down to $3 7/8ths because of the hedges led to disappointing results this quarter... which they may. - CRK's story is post Oct hedge expiration... & the new wells... oh well - I still have OEI & XTO as my conservative value plays... Anyone else willing to share their thinking here ? Is the Street setting us up , so they can sell into strength here on these upgrades ? Are these upgrades alone (sans fundamentals) enough for the OSX to breakout into the 90's here ? Does anyone else sense that most people are buying these run ups - then capitulating and selling the retracements ? We've been rangebound with OSX 82ish as a ceiling for some time now .... Can Crude technically withstand speculative selling, correction here ? Can crude run up another $2 on storage numbers & OPEC compliance continuing short term ? comments anyone ?