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To: SargeK who wrote (48818)	8/4/1999 12:09:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 95453

SargeK - yup , your FGI/HLX is a lock & GIFI UFAB cheeeeeep ... good calls; I am probably nuts; but, when you follow 5-6 stocks all most exclusively; you virtually get a ''pulse'' of the market - tradingwise. For me I have to stick with what's working well - these small/mid cap E&P's. But, when we do breakout, base and begin the next climb to OSX 100-120 etc. then; the FGI/HLX GIFI UFAB GLBL VRC'S are the plays imho, they are undervalued to their OSX peers who are the first ones to get the expected upturn priced into their shares... NBR up 9/16ths on a big block buy.... verrrry interesting, PKD gets upgraded... This is a virtual ''war'' going on between longs & shorts; those who believe in Asian demand growth, OPEC's continued compliance, the reality of reduced supply vs. those who want to push the Barron's spam-spin doctoring & question the supply-storage numbers.... this is the best & most equal footing that the two camps have been on in some time imho.. they both can present both solid fundamental & technical arguements... this is why I am in & out in individual plays - and mainly US NAt Gas stocks which are not really affected by all the OPEC/Missing Barrels/storage spin... My question is; are there enough buyers - after anyone could have bought cheaper here for months ? Is there really a fundamental driver to support this pop on the OSX upgrades ? Can crude prices withstand a technical corection - will the OSX follow, or even over-react to a technical correction in crude ? Is there enough cap ex spending increases that are NOT expected, known & all ready factored in here ? Can the OSX really breakout WITHOUT a dramatic increase in cap ex budgets by the Oil Majors ? - can the independants do it alone ? ... this is the most interesting transition I've seen. It is buy & hold nirvanna imho; I wouldn't be chasing too many breakouts to buy here, but the laggards are still littering the highway - these are still buys... JIm; sure - buy before the upgrade on TMR - I am not knocking TMR, I just do not sense that the breakout here will not be followed with a profit taking retracement - and another sub $4 opportunity wil not exist... if it doesn't - there are still PLENTY of other buy's here - that is my ENTIRE point; we do NOT have to be chasing ANYTHING here - there is still plenty of value here... SELL the breakouts & buy the retracements... depending on where you bought; I would have a hard time not taking ''some'' profits on TMR if it really moves today... bwdik... anyone a call buyer here - if so what ? Any comments on Crude prices - can it move through $22, do we bounce sub $20 - base and then go to new highs ? Is Nat Gas just going to keep climbing and break $3 by Oct ?

To: SargeK who wrote (48818)	8/4/1999 12:10:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

SargeK - yup , your FGI/HLX is a lock & GIFI UFAB cheeeeeep ... good calls; I am probably nuts; but, when you follow 5-6 stocks all most exclusively; you virtually get a ''pulse'' of the market - tradingwise. For me I have to stick with what's working well - these small/mid cap E&P's. But, when we do breakout, base and begin the next climb to OSX 100-120 etc. then; the FGI/HLX GIFI UFAB GLBL VRC'S are the plays imho, they are undervalued to their OSX peers who are the first ones to get the expected upturn priced into their shares... NBR up 9/16ths on a big block buy - how can anyone be a buyer of NBR here today ? - maybe the technicians will bring the mo-mo buyers here ???? that could be the ticket imho - the technicians jumping on board ! new 52 week highs being hit.... verrrry interesting, PKD gets upgraded... This is a virtual ''war'' going on between longs & shorts; those who believe in Asian demand growth, OPEC's continued compliance, the reality of reduced supply vs. those who want to push the Barron's spam-spin doctoring & question the supply-storage numbers.... this is the best & most equal footing that the two camps have been on in some time imho.. they both can present both solid fundamental & technical arguements... this is why I am in & out in individual plays - and mainly US NAt Gas stocks which are not really affected by all the OPEC/Missing Barrels/storage spin... My question is; are there enough buyers - after anyone could have bought cheaper here for months ? Is there really a fundamental driver to support this pop on the OSX upgrades ? Can crude prices withstand a technical corection - will the OSX follow, or even over-react to a technical correction in crude ? Is there enough cap ex spending increases that are NOT expected, known & all ready factored in here ? Can the OSX really breakout WITHOUT a dramatic increase in cap ex budgets by the Oil Majors ? - can the independants do it alone ? ... this is the most interesting transition I've seen. It is buy & hold nirvanna imho; I wouldn't be chasing too many breakouts to buy here, but the laggards are still littering the highway - these are still buys... JIm; sure - buy before the upgrade on TMR - I am not knocking TMR, I just do not sense that the breakout here will not be followed with a profit taking retracement - and another sub $4 opportunity wil not exist... if it doesn't - there are still PLENTY of other buy's here - that is my ENTIRE point; we do NOT have to be chasing ANYTHING here - there is still plenty of value here... SELL the breakouts & buy the retracements... depending on where you bought; I would have a hard time not taking ''some'' profits on TMR if it really moves today... bwdik... anyone a call buyer here - if so what ? Any comments on Crude prices - can it move through $22, do we bounce sub $20 - base and then go to new highs ? Is Nat Gas just going to keep climbing and break $3 by Oct ?