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Technology Stocks : Fonix:Voice Recognition Product (FONX) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ILCUL8R who wrote (2352)	8/4/1999 12:53:00 PM
From: Dr. Bob	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3347

Richard, I don't post here often, because I decided long ago FONX was not a good investment. But since you're wanting a conversation... Your last post illustrates why TTS will never make anyone much money, IMO. You pay nothing for that service; the people supplying it don't make much, either. If they can get a "sleepy Swede" sounding TTS for cheaper than a somewhat better TTS, they may still go for the cheaper one - very few customers will choose not to dial them up based on the quality of the TTS. So TTS will be a commodity, where price is the primary determinant, because everybody (and there are lots of companies out there offering TTS) will have a pretty good product. I would equate it to word processing - early on, some companies distinguished themselves on the basis of features, but you don't see big profits being made in that sector any more. We're using word processing here (and someday soon, will be using TTS - already available via some programs), but no-one's making much on that! IMO, the winning companies in the sector FONX is playing in will: 1. Have a speech recognition product that has a high ease but broad range of use and a very high level of accuracy. FONX has promised this for years but never delivered; Philips lags the leaders as well; L&H, Dragon, and IBM are currently leading in this category. 2. Have excellent partnership agreements with the major players. Again, L&H, Dragon and IBM lead here; Philips still has to be watched, but FONX has promised much and delivered little. 3. Have an excellent translation product. We are very provincial, thinking the US market is where the future is, but it is only where the present is. L&H is the clear leader here; Dragon and IBM are trying to catch up. Philips, FONX and the rest are hopelessly behind. 4. Have the financial wherewithal to survive a bruising battle for supremacy over the next 5 -10 years. Pricing will be (and is) aggressive. Advertising/public awareness will be crucial. Retaining the best engineers and making strategic acquisitions will be essential. Here, L&H, Dragon, and IBM each have some strengths; FONX is sucking wind big time. IMO, FONX still exists primarily to allow stock manipulators a chance to play. Dr. Ashton got out long ago. Coles, Oberteuffer, et al are laying low; they know their future is elsewhere. The only ones left to guide you are bankers-turned-entrepreneurs, and their track record (not only with FONX) stinks. This company might be bought out at some point to gain access to some good engineers, but that is its only value. People have long since had a chance to look at neural networks; they aren't turning the world upside down, in FONX's hands, or anyone else's. They may have a role at some point in the future, but FONX's patent is not exclusive and will not be much of a problem to make an end around. Bob