Same old story,,,CBS MarketWatch,,,5:29 PM ET Aug 4, 1999 Bond Report
NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- The familiar refrain of morning strength, afternoon weakness, technology sector selling and Internet stock dumping characterized Wednesday's activity on Wall Street, as some looming economic reports kept buyers in scarce supply.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 2.54 points to 10,674.77. Without a 10 9/16-point gain in Union Carbide, the index would have been off about 51 points.
The Nasdaq Composite descended 48.07 points, or 1.9 percent, to 2,539.92. Since July 19's session high, the tech-drenched gauge has lost 11.7 percent.
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 1.3 percent. The Russell 2000 Index of small-capitalization stocks sank 1.5 percent.
On the Big Board floor, turnover swelled 7 percent to 785 million shares.
Laubscher feels that the market is close to staging an oversold rally. But he doesn't think the rally will amount to much in the absence of any good news.
"We're continuing to tell people to sell the market every time it goes up," he said. "And if you're thinking of buying anything in the Internet business, have a martini and lie down and wait for the urge to pass. They're all going to go so much lower." 8/4/99 7:06:48 PM ET In the bond market, Treasurys blossomed as the prospect of diminished issuance through government buybacks underpinned prices. See full story. The 30-year Treasury rose 20/32, to yield 6.112 percent. See Bond Report.
"At the end of the day, market yields will be set not on technicals, such as changes in supply, but on fundamentals, such as growth and inflation," said Tony Crescenzi, chief bond market strategist at Miller Tabak & Co., in a research brief. "In this vein, until the economy slows, a sustainable bond rally could prove elusive."
Of importance is the Thursday release of second-quarter productivity data and Friday report on July jobs growth. The former release is receiving more attention than normal in light of Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's recent comments regarding productivity and its major role in quelling inflation.
Given the heady stock run-up in advance of the second-quarter earnings season, relatively few participants are willing to bet on a fresh advance of meaningful proportions. Throw in an unfriendly bond market, a lack of conviction, and the seasonally-worst period of the year and it's not surprising that many players are opting on the side of restraint.
"You are transitioning from a momentum market, dominated by a small number of large-cap technology and Internet stocks, into a trading-range market, where relative value and security analysis count," said James Awad, chairman of Awad Asset Management Inc.
Awad, who runs $1 billion, is a long way from throwing in the towel on this market.
"I don't think you should get bearish," he said. "I think the name of the game has changed. The big averages are not going to carry the day. The old leaders are not going to carry the day. But there are still a lot of cheap stocks. And if you own them, you can make money."
Union Carbide (UK: news, msgs) and Dow Chemical (DOW: news, msgs) will team up in a deal worth $11.6 billion in stock and debt, creating the world's No. 2 chemical company. Union Carbide shareholders will be given 0.537 Dow shares for each share of Union Carbide they own. Dow shares lost 5 1/16 to 119 5/8, while Carbide stock drove ahead 11 3/16 to 60. See full story.
Internet stocks limped lower for the fifth day in a row as many of the names approached their lows of mid-June. Individual investors have been the participants exerting the most pressure on the group over the past three months. Top-shelf names were all lower: America Online faded 1 7/16 to 87 3/8, Yahoo 4 1/2 to 120 7/8, Amazon.com 6 7/16 to 88 7/16, EBay 8 5/8 to 75 3/4, ExciteAtHome 2 3/8 to 41, and CMGI 5 7/8 to 76.
Champion International (CHA: news, msgs) climbed 4 3/4 to 59 5/16. ABN AMRO began coverage of the paper producer with a "buy" opinion and price objective of $65. The broker likes the improving industry fundamentals and relative valuation of the stock.
Other paper and forest products producers climbed amid positive analyst comments International Paper was ahead 2 15/16 to 54 15/16, Temple Inland 2 11/16 to 68 3/4, and Bowater 2 13/16 to 52 11/16. See full story.
International Business Machines (IBM: news, msgs) stepped back 3/4 to 118 5/8 despite SoundView Technology Group analyst Gary Helmig upping 1999 and 2000 earnings estimates and boosting his 12-month price objective to $160 from $130. The analyst believes the Y2K capital equipment spending slowdown will be less than expected.
Among other benchmark computer-related issues, eight stocks fell for each that gained. Most losses, however, were confined to 2 percent. On the plus side, Microsoft added 3/16 to 84 15/16 and Hewlett-Packard tacked on 1 3/4 to 110 1/4.
Liquid Audio (LQID: news, msgs) declined 2 9/16 to 22 1/16. The provider of software that enables online music distribution registered a second-quarter operating deficit of $1.46 a share vs. the 94-cent loss of a year ago.
Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM: news, msgs) said fiscal fourth-quarter profit totaled 34 cents a share, matching the First Call estimate, and a penny richer than the year-ago figure. The stock fell 2 13/16 to 62 1/16.
Theglobe.com (TGLO: news, msgs) reported a second-quarter pro forma operating loss of 27 cents a share, a nickel better than the First Call forecast. In the second quarter of 1998, the Web site operator lost $1.65 a share. The stock rose 1 1/2 to 11 3/8.
The Limited (LTD: news, msgs) said robust demand for its Express brands and Lerner New York and Lane Bryant product lines should allow it to net 26 cents a share from operations in the second quarter. Wall Street had anticipated 19 cents, per First Call. The shares added 1 1/8 to 46.
Most of the current cycle's speculative growth stock leaders took on water. NextLink Communications wilted 5 7/8 to 82, VISX 5 3/8 to 87 1/4, and QLogic 7 3/4 to 68 7/8.
But Qualcomm (QCOM: news, msgs) added 2 7/16 to 142 7/16 after Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown analyst Brian T. Modoff repeated his "strong buy" recommendation. Modoff believes that Tuesday's selloff in the stock was "excessive." Then, the shares were pressured after Motorola announced plans to enter the CDMA merchant chipset market, a market in which Qualcomm holds an approximate 85 percent share.
After the close of Wednesday's trade, GoTo.com (GOTO: news, msgs) said it lost 20 cents on a pro forma basis in the second quarter, 2 cents better than the First Call forecast but 9 cents worse than the year-ago tally. The company operates an Internet search service. In afterhours Instinet activity, the shares weren't trading.
After the close of Wednesday's trade, Anchor Gaming (SLOT: news, msgs) squeaked past the First Call projection by a penny when it reported fiscal fourth-quarter operating net of $1.23 a share vs. the $1.42 of a year ago. In afterhours Instinet activity, the shares weren't trading.
After the close of Wednesday's trade, Sterling Software (SSW: news, msgs) reported fiscal third-quarter operating earnings of 46 cents a share, a penny richer than the First Call view and 14 cents more than the figure of a year ago. In afterhours Instinet activity, the shares weren't trading.
After the close of Wednesday's trade, Teleglobe (TGO: news, msgs) said it earned a nickel a share in the second quarter, 2 cents leaner than the First Call expectation and 17 cents worse than in the same period of 1998. In afterhours Instinet activity, shares of the telecommunications network operator weren't trading.
LOOKING FORWARD
Thursday, the weekly jobless claims report will be presented at 8:30 a.m. ET, with most economists anticipating 305,000 new claims for state unemployment insurance benefits.
At 10:00 a.m. ET, second-quarter productivity data will be released. Most forecasters expect a figure of 2.2 percent. |